{"id":17816,"date":"2013-08-18T01:04:10","date_gmt":"2013-08-18T08:04:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=17816"},"modified":"2013-08-18T01:04:10","modified_gmt":"2013-08-18T08:04:10","slug":"this-may-is-not-likely-to-hurt-some-hedging-ideas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/08\/18\/this-may-is-not-likely-to-hurt-some-hedging-ideas\/","title":{"rendered":"This May Is Not Likely To Hurt &#8211; But Just In Case, Here Are Some Hedging Ideas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 6, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1404081-this-month-of-may-is-not-likely-to-hurt-just-in-case-some-hedging-ideas\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1965 to 1967<br \/>\n1969 to 1971<br \/>\n1981 to 1984<br \/>\n1998 to 2000<br \/>\n2010 to 2012<\/p>\n<p>Since 1950, these are the ONLY years where the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) finished the month of May with a loss for at least three years in a row. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>As I demonstrated in <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/272864-summer-s-positive-gains-can-come-with-high-risks\" target=\"_blank\">a piece two years ago<\/a>, May, and the subsequent summer, generate so much fear not because of average losses &#8211; in fact, the average performance is a GAIN &#8211; but because of volatility which can generate some particularly steep losses. <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The clear lesson was a reminder that May and the summer are about downside risks, not average performance. So, with three straight years of negative months of May behind us, this May is not likely to hurt. However, just in case, there are plenty of hedges&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p><strong>ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe (EPV)<\/strong><br \/>\n{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17820\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17820\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_EPV.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_EPV.png\" alt=\"This chart reminds us that while EPV is great for episodic bets, SHORTING this fund over the long-term is the best bet overall\" title=\"This chart reminds us that while EPV is great for episodic bets, SHORTING this fund over the long-term is the best bet overall\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17820\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_EPV.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_EPV-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17820\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">This chart reminds us that while EPV is great for episodic bets, SHORTING this fund over the long-term is the best bet overall<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Caterpillar (CAT)<\/strong><br \/>\n{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17818\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17818\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwCAT is trading back to where it was when the company gave FY13 guidance last Septemberentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_CAT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_CAT.png\" alt=\"CAT is trading back to where it was when the company gave FY13 guidance last September\" title=\"CAT is trading back to where it was when the company gave FY13 guidance last September\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17818\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_CAT.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_CAT-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17818\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">CAT is trading back to where it was when the company gave FY13 guidance last September<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE)<\/strong><br \/>\n{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17819\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17819\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_HDGE.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_HDGE.png\" alt=\"Last May was the last time HDGE had a good run. It has been mostly downhill from there.\" title=\"Last May was the last time HDGE had a good run. It has been mostly downhill from there.\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17819\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_HDGE.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130503_HDGE-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17819\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Last May was the last time HDGE had a good run. It has been mostly downhill from there.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>So, to review, May is not likely to cause pain this year if we stick strictly to the odds. But if it does, there are plenty of options for hedging bets that may even outperform the obvious hedges of shorting the S&#038;P 500 or buying ProShares UltraShort S&#038;P500 (SDS). None of these options is long-term in nature, and I would recommend eventually plowing any profits into buying the dips this summer.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 6, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1404081-this-month-of-may-is-not-likely-to-hurt-just-in-case-some-hedging-ideas\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long CAT, short EUR\/USD, long EPV, long HDGE<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 6, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) 1965 to 1967 1969 to 1971 1981 to 1984 1998 to 2000 2010 to 2012 Since 1950, these are the ONLY years where the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) finished the month of &#8230; <a title=\"This May Is Not Likely To Hurt &#8211; But Just In Case, Here Are Some Hedging Ideas\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/08\/18\/this-may-is-not-likely-to-hurt-some-hedging-ideas\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[794,20,62],"tags":[972,64,63,1015,376,28,447,973,1014,975,65,656,583,362],"class_list":["post-17816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","tag-active-bear-etf","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-epv","tag-eurusd","tag-euro","tag-fxe","tag-hdge","tag-proshares-ultrashort-msci-europe","tag-proshares-ultrashort-sp500","tag-sp-500","tag-sds","tag-sell-in-may","tag-spy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>This May Is Not Likely To Hurt - But Just In Case, Here Are Some Hedging Ideas - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/08\/18\/this-may-is-not-likely-to-hurt-some-hedging-ideas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"This May Is Not Likely To Hurt - But Just In Case, Here Are Some Hedging Ideas - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 6, 2013. 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