{"id":17751,"date":"2013-04-28T15:32:31","date_gmt":"2013-04-28T22:32:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=17751"},"modified":"2013-04-29T10:59:42","modified_gmt":"2013-04-29T17:59:42","slug":"t2108-update-130426","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/04\/28\/t2108-update-130426\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (April 26, 2013) – Burden of Proof Shifts to the Bulls"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 59.2%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.6
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold with caution and take some profits<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nA LOT has happened in the week since I last wrote a T2108 Update<\/a>. Through it all, the S&P 500 (SPY) has steadily marched higher with a near picture-perfect bounce off its 50DMA.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 continues its rally with a firm bounce off 50DMA support<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This bounce turned the trade on quasi-oversold conditions into a very profitable one. I sold 70% of my SSO calls on Thursday as the S&P 500 stretched for its upper-Bollinger Band (I erroneously reported on twitter that I only sold 50% of them). I had been very patient up until then waiting for the S&P 500 to deliver and figured it was time to lock in some profits with the index at such a critical test. The S&P 500 just barely avoided a red flag warning of a potential double top the next day (Friday, April 26th). The lows stopped right at the previous day’s low, thus preserving the upward momentum. A lower close would have signified a follow-through fade from Thursday’s failure at resistance at the all-time highs. <\/p>\n

This is important because the Japanese yen (FXY) seems to have made a potential double-top against the U.S. dollar (USD\/JPY).<\/p>\n

\"Has<\/a>
Has the persistent weakness of the Japanese yen finally come to an end?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Ever since the S&P 500 rallied off the post-election lows last October, there has been a tight correlation between S&P 500 strength and Japanese yen weakness. This does NOT necessarily say that the carry trade – the borrowing of yen to purchase the S&P 500 – has lifted the stock market ever higher. The correlation between the yen and the S&P 500 was not high before the election; moreover, a lot of markets have gone higher over this time period, and it is not likely yen are being used to buy up all these markets. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The near perfect correlation between USD\/JPY and the S&P 500 is relatively recent<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

A confirmed double-top in USD\/JPY – a break below the low following the first top (around 96) – could impact trading psychology a lot, especially with May right around the corner. Seeing the S&P 500 struggle with printing fresh all-time highs will all but confirm for many traders that it is indeed time to “sell in May and go away.” I will be watching very carefully the behavior on both sides of the equation. The burden of proof rests firmly with the bulls now.<\/p>\n

T2108 dropped for the first time since it printed a quasi-oversold condition over a week ago at 37.2%. Before this drop, an overbought condition for the coming week seemed all but certain. This is now the sixth day in the 40% “overperiod.” <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The T2108 40% "over-period"<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This part of the new T2108 Model suggests that there is still a downward bias to trading IF T2108 drops below 40%. I ignored this possibility last week in order to pursue the bounce from quasi-oversold conditions as far as it would take me. The important lesson here as I continue to refine the model is that I cannot read too much into signals that do not provide a definitive recommendation. In the case of these over\/under-periods, the prescription is conditioned on an event – the end of the period – that itself does not have a prediction model. I can use the mean duration of the T2108 40% over-period of just under 50 days and the median duration of around 10 days to trigger a FIRST bearish trade as the odds favor an end to the 40% over-period. But after the 50th trading day (10 weeks!) the bias must be bullish given the high likelihood that the S&P 500 will still provide positive returns when T2108 next drops below 40% (it of course somewhat depends on how large the S&P 500 gains get DURING the over-period). However, by then, I should find other over-periods much more informative (like 70% where T2108 will be officially overbought).<\/p>\n

This complicated reality also creates the need for finding other prediction models that are at least as powerful as the quasi-oversold model. As always, stay tuned!<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO calls, long USD\/JPY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,135,1154,62],"tags":[513,138,65,226,1597,454],"class_list":["post-17751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-stock-market-trading","category-t2108-model","category-technical-analysis","tag-fxy","tag-japanese-yen","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-usdjpy"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (April 26, 2013) - Burden of Proof Shifts to the Bulls - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/04\/28\/t2108-update-130426\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (April 26, 2013) - Burden of Proof Shifts to the Bulls - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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