{"id":17171,"date":"2013-03-15T00:19:19","date_gmt":"2013-03-15T07:19:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=17171"},"modified":"2013-03-15T00:20:29","modified_gmt":"2013-03-15T07:20:29","slug":"poor-participation-in-market-all-time-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/03\/15\/poor-participation-in-market-all-time-highs\/","title":{"rendered":"Poor Participation In the Market’s All-Time Highs Drives Caution"},"content":{"rendered":"

I do not pay much attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and greatly prefer the S&P 500 (SPY) as being more representative of the stock market. However, anyone with a pulse has likely heard or read the breathless headlines about the Dow’s all-time highs. <\/p>\n


\n
\"An<\/a>
An impressive recovery from historic lows to all-time highs in just four years<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The Dow is now up ten days in a row, a feat not seen since 1996<\/a>. Yet, as Art Cashin remarked on CNBC, this is a rally without joy or enthusiasm<\/a>. Bears may call this catatonic state complacency; contrarians may delight in this mood as it could demonstrate the market is far from the euphoria that usually marks tops. What I have noted is that not even stocks are participating in this euphoria in a broad sense.<\/p>\n

First of all, of the 30 stocks in the Dow<\/a>, only 10 are hitting all-time highs along with the index. Those stocks are 3M Company (MMM), American Express (AXP), Chevron Corporation (CVX), Home Depot (HD) {marginally}, International Business Machines (IBM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter and Gamble (PG), Travelers Companies (TRV), United Technologies (UTX), and Walt Disney Company (DIS). Caterpillar (CAT) gets special mention because it made new all-time highs in 2011 but has since sold off over 25%. The divide between these star performers and the rest of the pack is relatively wide. Stocks like Aloca (AA), AT&T (T), Bank of America (BAC), Cisco (CSCO), General Electric (GE), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Intel (INTC), Merk (MRK), Microsoft (MSFT), and Verizon (VZ) are nowhere near their all-time highs, constituting another 1\/3 of the index. <\/p>\n

This dichotomy can be seen in the general market. An indicator I like to follow is the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving averages (DMA). In FreeStockCharts.com, it is called T2108. I follow this index closely in my T2108 Updates<\/a>. Currently, T2108 is at 63%. This means that almost 40% of stocks are trading below their 40DMAs. These are all stocks nowhere near their all-time highs. Typically, during a strong rally like the current one, T2108 moves into “overbought” territory which is 70% or higher. With the S&P 500 a mere few points away from its all-time high, I would have expected T2108 to be closing in on 80% or more. Instead, it seems a good number of stocks are getting left behind.<\/p>\n


\n
\"T2108<\/a>
T2108 is showing a lack of enthusiasm (red line marks overbought, blue line marks oversold)<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Note that when the stock market exploded higher to start the new year, T2108 went as high as 85%. The 20 percentage point differential between then and now, represents a large number of stocks whose performance has sharply diverged from that of the S&P 500 (or stock market in general). This setup provides a very good reason to hold the enthusiasm or joy: the lofty heights are not getting broadly shared. <\/p>\n

Currently, T2108 has bounced between 60 to 65% since March 5th. The S&P 500 is up a mere 1.3% since then. Without more participation, the S&P 500’s rally should continue to lack luster. I will be looking to see whether T2108 can break out and finally join the S&P 500 in its upward climb. Until then, I will continue to assume that the rally is at high risk of an imminent correction.<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long CAT<\/p>\n


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I do not pay much attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and greatly prefer the S&P 500 (SPY) as being more representative of the stock market. However, anyone with a pulse has likely heard or read the breathless headlines about the Dow’s all-time highs. The Dow is now up ten days in a … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,135,62,920],"tags":[1147,1148,65,362,226,1597],"class_list":["post-17171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","category-uptrend","tag-dia","tag-dow-jones","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nPoor Participation In the Market's All-Time Highs Drives Caution - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/03\/15\/poor-participation-in-market-all-time-highs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Poor Participation In the Market's All-Time Highs Drives Caution - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I do not pay much attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and greatly prefer the S&P 500 (SPY) as being more representative of the stock market. 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