{"id":17102,"date":"2013-03-14T00:12:31","date_gmt":"2013-03-14T07:12:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=17102"},"modified":"2013-03-14T00:13:51","modified_gmt":"2013-03-14T07:13:51","slug":"historic-black-friday-trade-continues-bullish-path","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/03\/14\/historic-black-friday-trade-continues-bullish-path\/","title":{"rendered":"A Historic Black Friday Trade Continues Down Its Bullish Path"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 6, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1252991-an-historic-black-friday-trade-continues-down-its-bullish-path\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One hundred and two (102) calendar days and counting and the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) still has yet to reverse all the gains from last year&#8217;s Black Friday rally.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17091\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17091\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_SP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_SP500.png\" alt=\"The celebration continues\" title=\"The celebration continues\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17091\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_SP500.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_SP500-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17091\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The celebration continues<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>These 102 calendar days (almost 15 weeks) without a reversal of Black Friday&#8217;s gain are also historic. This is now the 4th longest post-Black Friday period since 1950 without a reversal. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The chart above includes <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1151041-with-a-rate-decision-looming-weakening-australian-dollar-sends-poor-signal-for-stocks\" target=\"_blank\">a downside target I estimated<\/a> after noting the continued weakness in the Australian dollar (FXA) as a potential drag on stocks. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>One of the most fascinating developments in recent weeks was the sudden outburst from the volatility index, the VIX. Two weeks ago, I wrote &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1201871-global-markets-synchronize-into-a-state-of-calm-that-does-not-equate-to-safety\" target=\"_blank\">Global Markets Synchronize Into A State Of Calm That Does Not Equate To Safety<\/a>&#8221; as the VIX dropped to seven year lows. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17107\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17107\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_VIX.png\" alt=\"The VIX looks set for a rapid return to 7-year lows\" title=\"The VIX looks set for a rapid return to 7-year lows\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17107\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_VIX.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_VIX-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17107\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The VIX looks set for a rapid return to 7-year lows<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: FreeStockCharts.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>If the VIX remains at these low levels, churning up and down no doubt, it will likely support continued buying as the new-high celebrations roll onward with a renewed sense that such strong performance demonstrates &#8220;safety&#8221; has returned to the stock market. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Finally, this year has started with strong fund flows into stocks, further supporting a bull run. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17096\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17096\" style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_MutualFundFlows_BondVsStock.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_MutualFundFlows_BondVsStock.png\" alt=\"Flows into stock funds are finally rivaling flows into bond funds\" title=\"Flows into stock funds are finally rivaling flows into bond funds\" width=\"510\" height=\"289\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17096\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_MutualFundFlows_BondVsStock.png 510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/130305_MutualFundFlows_BondVsStock-300x170.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 510px) 100vw, 510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17096\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Flows into stock funds are finally rivaling flows into bond funds<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Fidelity<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Net-net, the bullish path seems like it is still clear for what I have called the Black Friday Trade. Once this rally passes the 115-day mark, it faces a long road to third place: a 808-day streak from 1971 to 1974. In other words, given the rally has lasted this long, there is plenty of reason to believe that it can last much longer.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 6, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1252991-an-historic-black-friday-trade-continues-down-its-bullish-path\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long VXX shares and puts, SSO puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 6, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) One hundred and two (102) calendar days and counting and the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) still has yet to reverse all the gains from last year&#8217;s Black Friday rally. {snip} These 102 &#8230; <a title=\"A Historic Black Friday Trade Continues Down Its Bullish Path\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/03\/14\/historic-black-friday-trade-continues-bullish-path\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[997],"tags":[308,1074,309,1146,65,303,178],"class_list":["post-17102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-analysis","tag-audusd","tag-black-friday","tag-fxa","tag-mutual-funds","tag-sp-500","tag-vix","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Historic Black Friday Trade Continues Down Its Bullish Path - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/03\/14\/historic-black-friday-trade-continues-bullish-path\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Historic Black Friday Trade Continues Down Its Bullish Path - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 6, 2013. 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