{"id":16946,"date":"2013-04-02T23:23:58","date_gmt":"2013-04-03T06:23:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=16946"},"modified":"2013-04-02T23:23:58","modified_gmt":"2013-04-03T06:23:58","slug":"weakening-canadian-economy-needs-weaker-currency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/04\/02\/weakening-canadian-economy-needs-weaker-currency\/","title":{"rendered":"A Weakening Canadian Economy Needs A Weaker Currency"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 24, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1219141-a-weakening-canadian-economy-needs-a-weaker-currency\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16947\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16947\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_EWC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_EWC.png\" alt=\"EWC has struggled to break 2012 highs\" title=\"EWC has struggled to break 2012 highs\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16947\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_EWC.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_EWC-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16947\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">EWC has struggled to break 2012 highs<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/report-on-business\/economy\/economy-lab\/why-hasnt-the-bank-of-canada-been-watching-yield-curve-data\/article7912941\/\" target=\"_blank\">In 2012, the yield curve for Canadian government bonds flashed a major warning signal<\/a>. In particular, the gap between 2-year and 5-year bond yields fell dramatically from March to May following a more steady decline in 2011 (note the coinciding peak in EWC in April, 2012). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16951\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16951\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_USDCAD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_USDCAD.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar has steadily risen against the Canadian dollar since QE3\" title=\"The U.S. dollar has steadily risen against the Canadian dollar since QE3\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16951\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_USDCAD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_USDCAD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16951\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar has steadily risen against the Canadian dollar since QE3<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The case for a weaker Canadian dollar is demonstrated in Canada&#8217;s poor export performance ever since the U.S. dollar began its secular decline in 2000. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16952\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16952\" style=\"width: 530px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_CanadaExports.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_CanadaExports.png\" alt=\"Canadian exports came to a screeching halt around 2000 and have largely failed to grow ever since\" title=\"Canadian exports came to a screeching halt around 2000 and have largely failed to grow ever since\" width=\"540\" height=\"324\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16952\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_CanadaExports.png 540w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_CanadaExports-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16952\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Canadian exports came to a screeching halt around 2000 and have largely failed to grow ever since<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=CANEXPORTQDSNAQ\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16953\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16953\" style=\"width: 530px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_USDCAD-monthly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_USDCAD-monthly.png\" alt=\"USD\/CAD has spent most of the past 30+ years above parity. The U.S. dollar was the stronger currency from 1977 to 2002\" title=\"USD\/CAD has spent most of the past 30+ years above parity. The U.S. dollar was the stronger currency from 1977 to 2002\" width=\"540\" height=\"335\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16953\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_USDCAD-monthly.png 540w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130222_USDCAD-monthly-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16953\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">USD\/CAD has spent most of the past 30+ years above parity. The U.S. dollar was the stronger currency from 1977 to 2002<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyfx.com\/charts\/netdaniachart?symbol=USD\/CAD\" target=\"_blank\">DailyFX.com charts<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I focus here on exports because the Canadian economy is so heavily dependent on exporting goods and services to the U.S. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16956\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16956\" style=\"width: 530px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_RealGDPPerCapita_USvsCanada.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_RealGDPPerCapita_USvsCanada.png\" alt=\"Real GDP per Capita in Canada versus the U.S.\" title=\"Real GDP per Capita in Canada versus the U.S.\" width=\"540\" height=\"324\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16956\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_RealGDPPerCapita_USvsCanada.png 540w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_RealGDPPerCapita_USvsCanada-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16956\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Real GDP per Capita in Canada versus the U.S.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=CANRGDPC\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>With such tight linkages, the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar becomes an important arbiter of relative success of the two economies. It seems the time has finally come for the Canadian dollar to weaken, perhaps substantially from current levels. The performance of the U.S. economy is of course a main wildcard.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 24, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1219141-a-weakening-canadian-economy-needs-a-weaker-currency\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: short USD\/CAD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 24, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com {snip} In 2012, the yield curve for Canadian government bonds flashed a major warning signal. In particular, the gap between 2-year and 5-year bond yields fell dramatically from &#8230; <a title=\"A Weakening Canadian Economy Needs A Weaker Currency\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/04\/02\/weakening-canadian-economy-needs-weaker-currency\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[235,59,20],"tags":[296,1153,297,469],"class_list":["post-16946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-canada","category-economy","category-forex","tag-canadian-dollar","tag-exports","tag-fxc","tag-usdcad"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Weakening Canadian Economy Needs A Weaker Currency - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/04\/02\/weakening-canadian-economy-needs-weaker-currency\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Weakening Canadian Economy Needs A Weaker Currency - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 24, 2013. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com {snip} In 2012, the yield curve for Canadian government bonds flashed a major warning signal. In particular, the gap between 2-year and 5-year bond yields fell dramatically from ... 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