{"id":16937,"date":"2013-03-16T11:03:48","date_gmt":"2013-03-16T18:03:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=16937"},"modified":"2013-03-16T11:03:48","modified_gmt":"2013-03-16T18:03:48","slug":"supplydemand-imbalances-continue-building-in-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/03\/16\/supplydemand-imbalances-continue-building-in-the-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Supply\/Demand Imbalances Continue Building in the Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 24, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1219401-supply-demand-imbalances-continue-building-in-the-housing-market\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There were a lot of interesting nuggets in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/news-releases\/2013\/02\/january-existing-home-sales-hold-with-steady-price-gains-seller-s-market-developing\" target=\"_blank\">the January existing home sales report<\/a> from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The continuing decline in housing inventory has really caught my attention. NAR reports that inventories are pushing rock bottom levels {snip}<\/p>\n<p>NAR describes a growing supply\/demand imbalance that is particularly acute in select markets like the West where sales stalled because of limited inventories. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16939\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16939\" style=\"width: 530px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_MonthlySupplyUSHomes.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_MonthlySupplyUSHomes.png\" alt=\"Monthly Supply of Homes In the U.S.\" title=\"Monthly Supply of Homes In the U.S.\" width=\"540\" height=\"324\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16939\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_MonthlySupplyUSHomes.png 540w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_MonthlySupplyUSHomes-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16939\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Monthly Supply of Homes In the U.S.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=MSACSR\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}&#8230;if history provides an approximate model for the current recovery in housing, then we should expect the relative supply of homes to begin climbing within the next 2 years or so. The key ingredient, rising prices, has finally arrived.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}&#8230;I now wonder whether inflation expectations are also acting to slow the return of sellers of existing homes.{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Rising prices also motivate buyers to get into the market to either avoid paying higher prices in the future and\/or participate in asset appreciation. This dynamic is especially strong if buyers suspect interest rates are also on the rise which <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1153671-one-eye-on-higher-interest-rates-as-strong-housing-data-continue\" target=\"_blank\">appears to be the case now<\/a>. Here is what Toll Brothers (TOL) Co-Founder and Executive Chairman Robert I. Toll had to say during the company&#8217;s last earnings conference call&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The potential for pent-up demand can be seen in the St. Louis Fed&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=COMPHAI\" target=\"_blank\">Home Affordability Index<\/a>&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16941\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16941\" style=\"width: 530px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_HomeAffordabilityIndex.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_HomeAffordabilityIndex.png\" alt=\"Home Affordability Index\" title=\"Home Affordability Index\" width=\"540\" height=\"324\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16941\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_HomeAffordabilityIndex.png 540w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130223_HomeAffordabilityIndex-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16941\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Home Affordability Index<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=COMPHAI\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>With inventories and affordability at complimentary extremes, a significant supply\/demand imbalance continues to build in the housing market in general. {snip} <\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 24, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1219401-supply-demand-imbalances-continue-building-in-the-housing-market\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 24, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) There were a lot of interesting nuggets in the January existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The continuing decline in housing inventory has really caught my &#8230; <a title=\"Supply\/Demand Imbalances Continue Building in the Housing Market\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/03\/16\/supplydemand-imbalances-continue-building-in-the-housing-market\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[1149,1593,321,37,36],"class_list":["post-16937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-housing","tag-existing-home-sales","tag-housing","tag-national-association-of-realtors","tag-tol","tag-toll-brothers-inc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Supply\/Demand Imbalances Continue Building in the Housing Market - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/03\/16\/supplydemand-imbalances-continue-building-in-the-housing-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Supply\/Demand Imbalances Continue Building in the Housing Market - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 24, 2013. 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