{"id":16936,"date":"2013-04-17T23:42:20","date_gmt":"2013-04-18T06:42:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=16936"},"modified":"2013-04-17T23:42:20","modified_gmt":"2013-04-18T06:42:20","slug":"pound-vs-euro-debt-downgrade-vs-gdp-downgrade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/04\/17\/pound-vs-euro-debt-downgrade-vs-gdp-downgrade\/","title":{"rendered":"Pound vs Euro &#8211; Debt Downgrade Vs GDP Downgrade"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 25, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1219921-pound-vs-euro-debt-downgrade-vs-gdp-downgrade\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Shortly after U.S. trading closed on Friday, February 22nd, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moodys.com\/research\/Moodys-downgrades-UKs-government-bond-rating-to-Aa1-from-Aaa--PR_266844\" target=\"_blank\">Moody&#8217;s downgraded UK debt one notch from Aaa to Aa1 with a stable outlook<\/a>. This downgrade is a natural extension of the &#8220;negative outlook&#8221; rating Moody&#8217;s slapped on the UK a year ago. Moody&#8217;s is projecting economic weakness into the second half of this decade; no surprise to anyone following <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/Pages\/inflationreport\/2013\/ir1301.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">the last Bank of England Inflation Report<\/a>. Moody&#8217;s is concerned that the UK&#8217;s slower than expected growth will allow increasing debt burdens, peaking at 96% of GDP in 2016. This pattern presents &#8220;&#8230;a risk that the UK government may not be able to reverse the debt trajectory before the next economic shock or cyclical downturn in the economy.&#8221; Thus, the UK does not possess the kind of policy flexibility that other Aaa-rated sovereigns have.<\/p>\n<p>However, on balance, the news is not too bad. Moody&#8217;s granted the UK a stable outlook&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p>This advantage the UK has over the eurozone is one reason that <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1209941-where-the-pound-has-fallen-the-euro-should-soon-follow\" target=\"_blank\">I continue to think that playing a fade of the euro versus the pound (EUR\/GBP) makes sense<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;Typically, these trigger-happy reactions to debt downgrades are almost as swiftly reversed. As I type, the reversal is finally starting (and this is the way to play such news in the short-term). <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16968\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16968\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_EURUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_EURUSD.png\" alt=\"The euro confirms its breakdown below its 50DMA\" title=\"The euro confirms its breakdown below its 50DMA\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16968\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_EURUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_EURUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16968\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The euro confirms its breakdown below its 50DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16969\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16969\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_GBPUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_GBPUSD.png\" alt=\"The pound has decisively sliced through long-term support which should now provide resistance after some kind of relief bounce\" title=\"The pound has decisively sliced through long-term support which should now provide resistance after some kind of relief bounce\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16969\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_GBPUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_GBPUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16969\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The pound has decisively sliced through long-term support which should now provide resistance after some kind of relief bounce<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16970\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16970\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_EURCHF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_EURCHF.png\" alt=\"The Swiss franc is steadily regaining its luster against the euro but the 1.20 floor should continue to hold\" title=\"The Swiss franc is steadily regaining its luster against the euro but the 1.20 floor should continue to hold\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16970\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_EURCHF.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130224_EURCHF-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16970\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Swiss franc is steadily regaining its luster against the euro but the 1.20 floor should continue to hold<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source of charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 25, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1219921-pound-vs-euro-debt-downgrade-vs-gdp-downgrade\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long GBP\/USD, short EUR\/GBP, short EUR\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 25, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Shortly after U.S. trading closed on Friday, February 22nd, Moody&#8217;s downgraded UK debt one notch from Aaa to Aa1 with a stable outlook. This downgrade is a natural extension of the &#8230; <a title=\"Pound vs Euro &#8211; Debt Downgrade Vs GDP Downgrade\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/04\/17\/pound-vs-euro-debt-downgrade-vs-gdp-downgrade\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[393,456,794,20,237],"tags":[56,128,627,376,28,384,1163],"class_list":["post-16936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analyst-coverage","category-bonds-2","category-europe","category-forex","category-united-kingdom","tag-bank-of-england","tag-british-pound","tag-eurgbp","tag-eurusd","tag-euro","tag-gbpusd","tag-moodys"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pound vs Euro - Debt Downgrade Vs GDP Downgrade - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/04\/17\/pound-vs-euro-debt-downgrade-vs-gdp-downgrade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pound vs Euro - Debt Downgrade Vs GDP Downgrade - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 25, 2013. 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