{"id":16722,"date":"2013-02-09T07:56:34","date_gmt":"2013-02-09T15:56:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=16722"},"modified":"2013-02-09T07:56:34","modified_gmt":"2013-02-09T15:56:34","slug":"trading-lessons-verisign-closes-october-earnings-gap-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/02\/09\/trading-lessons-verisign-closes-october-earnings-gap-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Lessons: Verisign Closes October Earnings Gap Down"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Earnings announcements are supposed to reveal the fundamental strength (or weakness) in a company. The reaction to those earnings should indicate the underlying fundamentals of a company. Yet, there is no time like earnings where the contrast between the true fundamentals of a company and market sentiment can clash in the most dramatic fashion. Case in point is Verisign (VRSN).<\/p>\n<p>I will not repeat the fundamentals from the earnings announcements from the last two quarters: they are not needed for interpreting the recent trading action. Instead, I will focus on the chart as an example of the opportunity that can present itself when the market over-reacts on the negative side.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16723\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16723\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130208_VRSN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130208_VRSN.png\" alt=\"Verisign&#039;s 4-month roller coaster\" title=\"Verisign&#039;s 4-month roller coaster\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16723\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130208_VRSN.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130208_VRSN-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16723\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Verisign&#039;s 4-month roller coaster<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>First, note that VRSN has essentially closed the October post-earnings gap down this past week. It is the end result of a strong 38% upward streak from another convulsion around VRSN&#8217;s .com registry agreement renewal. This is an important moment for the stock: it forms a perfect tension that should lead to either a large upside or downside reaction once momentum is re-established in one direction or the other. Here is a list of other important chart lessons that can be applied in other situations.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>On Jan 3rd, VRSN broke through 50-day moving average (DMA) resistance, but received no follow-through for a week. After that, the stock sagged again, cracking the 50DMA on high volume. Two days later, a fresh effort to break the 50DMA resistance DID receive follow-through and VRSN has not looked back since. The big lesson here is the importance of patiently waiting for follow-through in playing breakouts. Similarly, a trader going short could have avoided whiplash by patiently waiting for follow-through on the breakdown below the 50DMA.<\/li>\n<li>On Jan 25th, VRSN broke through 200DMA resistance. This was a bigger deal since this line provided stiff resistance in the immediate aftermath and relief rally following October earnings. It took three more trading days to get the follow-through, but VRSN has not looked back since. Same lesson learned for the 50DMA.<\/li>\n<li>In both convulsions, October and November, VRSN plunged well below the lower-Bollinger Band (BB). The BB is defined by the grey area and approximates short-term expected volatility in the stock (in this case based on the past 20 days of trading). These over-reactions pushed the stock to significant extremes that set up strong relief rallies. This action represents a good dual lesson in avoiding selling in a panic. On the flip side, look to buy in a panic, especially sell puts, as sellers get washed out in these events leaving only upside for at least a short time.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I missed the opportunity from the October earnings gap down, but I was all over the November gap down. I honestly did not understand why the market had reacted so negatively, but I figured it was on-going bad vibes from the last earnings announcement. However, I was also less aggressive than I should have been. I bought a single March $27 2013 call option for $1.10. I chose a long-dated call to give the trade plenty of time to work out. It seemed very reasonable to expect VRSN to gain 10% or more in the next four months given the stock had fallen 28% in just the last month; this is an assumption that recent volatility is indicative of potential future volatility.<\/p>\n<p>VRSN&#8217;s immediate performance surpassed my best hopes, and I found myself with a double in two days. Options trading rules typically recommend locking in such rapid gains, so I did. Of course, as it happened, I could have gone to sleep on the call and woken up now with a hefty profit. The chart for this option says it all.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16730\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16730\" style=\"width: 530px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130208_VRSN-Mar37Call.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130208_VRSN-Mar37Call.png\" alt=\"A strong run for Verisign&#039;s March $37 2013 call option\" title=\"A strong run for Verisign&#039;s March $37 2013 call option\" width=\"540\" height=\"254\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16730\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130208_VRSN-Mar37Call.png 540w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130208_VRSN-Mar37Call-300x141.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16730\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A strong run for Verisign&#039;s March $37 2013 call option<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Etrade.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>In retrospect, I should have just set a stop. For example, a stop below the low of the day after the .com registry agreement renewal would have preserved a portion of profits while enabling me to participate in any further upside. I am not sure whether I would have been brave enough to see the call all the way up to its current price of $8. Instead, around the 50DMA I probably would have locked in profits and then bought new out of the money call options (assuming I still had bullish feelings of course).<\/p>\n<p>Traders and investors will likely have mixed feelings on VRSN. Bulls who held on are nervously wondering whether they should count their lucky stars and bail now that October&#8217;s losses have been erased. Bears who shorted after VRSN&#8217;s convulsions are nervously fearing that the current recovery may indicate that the company is just fine, especially after the very positive reaction to January&#8217;s earnings. Here again the charts should help determine the trade. A close above $46.50 with follow-through is a freshly bullish sign and can be bought. A breakdown below the 200DMA with follow-through indicates a strong likelihood that the relief buying has finally exhausted itself for now.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earnings announcements are supposed to reveal the fundamental strength (or weakness) in a company. The reaction to those earnings should indicate the underlying fundamentals of a company. Yet, there is no time like earnings where the contrast between the true fundamentals of a company and market sentiment can clash in the most dramatic fashion. Case &#8230; <a title=\"Trading Lessons: Verisign Closes October Earnings Gap Down\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/02\/09\/trading-lessons-verisign-closes-october-earnings-gap-down\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,599,512,135,62],"tags":[1597,1120,1119,1118],"class_list":["post-16722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-internet","category-resistance","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-technical-analysis","tag-trading-lessons","tag-verisign","tag-vrsn"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trading Lessons: Verisign Closes October Earnings Gap Down - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/02\/09\/trading-lessons-verisign-closes-october-earnings-gap-down\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trading Lessons: Verisign Closes October Earnings Gap Down - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Earnings announcements are supposed to reveal the fundamental strength (or weakness) in a company. 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