{"id":16638,"date":"2013-02-19T01:04:19","date_gmt":"2013-02-19T09:04:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=16638"},"modified":"2013-02-19T01:04:19","modified_gmt":"2013-02-19T09:04:19","slug":"eye-on-higher-rates-strong-housing-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/02\/19\/eye-on-higher-rates-strong-housing-data\/","title":{"rendered":"One Eye On Higher Interest Rates As Strong Housing Data Continue"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1153671-one-eye-on-higher-interest-rates-as-strong-housing-data-continue\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Long-term interest rates are moving higher. Although it can be difficult to interpret the meaning of interest rate movements given the Federal Reserve is an active player in manipulating rates, I am guessing a large part of the current move comes from an ever increasing confidence in the American economic recovery. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT), whose price moves inverse to yields, has traded to nine-month lows in a continuation of a breakdown that really began in fits and starts when the Federal Reserve announced another round of quantitative easing (QE3) last September. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16639\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16639\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_TLT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_TLT.png\" alt=\"TLT continues to break down\" title=\"TLT continues to break down\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16639\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_TLT.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_TLT-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16639\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">TLT continues to break down<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: FreeStockCharts.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_16643\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16643\" style=\"width: 530px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_10YearTreasury.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_10YearTreasury.png\" alt=\"In a relative sense, 10-year rates have spiked higher in recent months, but they remain firmly locked in an overall downtrend.\" title=\"In a relative sense, 10-year rates have spiked higher in recent months, but they remain firmly locked in an overall downtrend.\" width=\"540\" height=\"324\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16643\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_10YearTreasury.png 540w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_10YearTreasury-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16643\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">In a relative sense, 10-year rates have spiked higher in recent months, but they remain firmly locked in an overall downtrend.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=DGS10\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>So while QE3 has succeeded in goosing the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) to 5-year highs and closer and closer to all-time highs, it is failing to drive rates lower as advertised. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Higher rates could be a mixed bag for housing. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>So far, interest rates have not seeped into the narrative around the continued stream of strong data points for the housing recovery. Here are some of the recent highlights:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16651\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16651\" style=\"width: 530px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130203_PrivateResidentialInvestment.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130203_PrivateResidentialInvestment.png\" alt=\"Real Private Residential Fixed Investment (2004-2012)\" title=\"Real Private Residential Fixed Investment (2004-2012)\" width=\"540\" height=\"324\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16651\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130203_PrivateResidentialInvestment.png 540w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130203_PrivateResidentialInvestment-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16651\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Real Private Residential Fixed Investment (2004-2012)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=PRFIC96\">Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>In total, I do not see the current bump up in interest rates placing a dent in strong data points like the ones above. {snip} <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16658\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16658\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_TLTvsXHB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_TLTvsXHB.png\" alt=\"TLT vs XHB\" title=\"TLT vs XHB\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16658\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_TLTvsXHB.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/130201_TLTvsXHB-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16658\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">TLT vs XHB<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1153671-one-eye-on-higher-interest-rates-as-strong-housing-data-continue\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long TLT puts, TBT shares<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Long-term interest rates are moving higher. Although it can be difficult to interpret the meaning of interest rate movements given the Federal Reserve is an active player in manipulating rates, I &#8230; <a title=\"One Eye On Higher Interest Rates As Strong Housing Data Continue\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/02\/19\/eye-on-higher-rates-strong-housing-data\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,35],"tags":[1593,1042,1032,65,545,362,280,383],"class_list":["post-16638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-housing","tag-housing","tag-ishares-barclays-20-year-treasury-bond-fund","tag-qe3","tag-sp-500","tag-spdr-sp-homebuilders-etf","tag-spy","tag-tlt","tag-xhb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>One Eye On Higher Interest Rates As Strong Housing Data Continue - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/02\/19\/eye-on-higher-rates-strong-housing-data\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"One Eye On Higher Interest Rates As Strong Housing Data Continue - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2013. 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