{"id":16389,"date":"2013-01-23T22:32:02","date_gmt":"2013-01-24T06:32:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=16389"},"modified":"2013-01-23T22:32:02","modified_gmt":"2013-01-24T06:32:02","slug":"homebuilding-crossroads-of-changing-demographics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/01\/23\/homebuilding-crossroads-of-changing-demographics\/","title":{"rendered":"Homebuilding At the Crossroads Of Changing Demographics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 21, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1122361-homebuilding-at-the-crossroads-of-changing-demographics\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On January 17th, NPR&#8217;s All Things Considered ran a story called &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2013\/01\/17\/169611619\/homebuilding-is-booming-but-skilled-workers-are-scarce\" target=\"_blank\">Homebuilding Is Booming, But Skilled Workers Are Scarce<\/a>.&#8221; It was yet another story adding to the evidence that the tightness of the market for construction labor is increasingly weighing on the outlook for homebuilders (I last directly addressed this four months ago in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/853351-labor-shortages-underline-the-housing-recovery\" target=\"_blank\">Shortage of Labor in Some Housing Markets<\/a>&#8220;). There were some very choice quotes in this piece that motivated me to dig one more layer deeper into the data.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16394\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16394\" style=\"width: 620px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ConstructionHourlyWages.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ConstructionHourlyWages.png\" alt=\"The recession did not stop the steady rise in average hourly wages for non-supervisory construction workers\" title=\"The recession did not stop the steady rise in average hourly wages for non-supervisory construction workers\" width=\"630\" height=\"378\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16394\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ConstructionHourlyWages.png 630w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ConstructionHourlyWages-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16394\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The recession did not stop the steady rise in average hourly wages for non-supervisory construction workers<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for chart: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=AHECONS\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_16395\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16395\" style=\"width: 620px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ContructionEmployment.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ContructionEmployment.png\" alt=\"All construction employment fell quickly during the recession but has stabilized ever since\" title=\"All construction employment fell quickly during the recession but has stabilized ever since\" width=\"630\" height=\"378\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ContructionEmployment.png 630w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ContructionEmployment-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16395\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">All construction employment fell quickly during the recession but has stabilized ever since<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for chart: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=CEU2000000001\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_16397\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16397\" style=\"width: 620px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ResidentialContructionEmployment.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ResidentialContructionEmployment.png\" alt=\"Same pattern when focusing just on employment in residential construction\" title=\"Same pattern when focusing just on employment in residential construction\" width=\"630\" height=\"378\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16397\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ResidentialContructionEmployment.png 630w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_ResidentialContructionEmployment-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16397\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Same pattern when focusing just on employment in residential construction<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for chart: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=CEU2023610001\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>&#8230;{snip} 60% of applicants do not pass drug tests and background checks&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The article states generically that many construction workers have returned to their home countries. Mexican migrants represent some large proportion of that number&#8230; {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Given the mix of factors driving net migration toward zero, it is far from clear how easily this flow can or will reverse anytime soon. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Overall, it appears that the tightening labor conditions in the housing market will not ease quickly or readily. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The charts below compare gross and net profit margins across various homebuilders including current values versus 5-year averages. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Click images for larger views&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16409\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16409\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_HomebuilderGrossMargins.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_HomebuilderGrossMargins-300x217.png\" alt=\"Comparison of Current vs 5-Year Average Gross Margins for Select Homebuilders (as of January 18, 2013)\" title=\"Comparison of Current vs 5-Year Average Gross Margins for Select Homebuilders (as of January 18, 2013)\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-16409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_HomebuilderGrossMargins-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_HomebuilderGrossMargins.png 912w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16409\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Comparison of Current vs 5-Year Average Gross Margins for Select Homebuilders (as of January 18, 2013)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16410\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16410\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_HomebuilderNetProfitMargins.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_HomebuilderNetProfitMargins-300x217.png\" alt=\"Comparison of Current vs 5-Year Average Net Profit Margins for Select Homebuilders (as of January 18, 2013)\" title=\"Comparison of Current vs 5-Year Average Net Profit Margins for Select Homebuilders (as of January 18, 2013)\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-16410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_HomebuilderNetProfitMargins-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/130118_HomebuilderNetProfitMargins.png 912w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16410\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Comparison of Current vs 5-Year Average Net Profit Margins for Select Homebuilders (as of January 18, 2013)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>All data from <a href=\"http:\/\/investing.money.msn.com\/investments\/key-ratios?symbol=tol&#038;page=ProfitMargins\" target=\"_blank\">MSN Money (profit margins)<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 21, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1122361-homebuilding-at-the-crossroads-of-changing-demographics\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 21, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On January 17th, NPR&#8217;s All Things Considered ran a story called &#8220;Homebuilding Is Booming, But Skilled Workers Are Scarce.&#8221; It was yet another story adding to the evidence that the tightness &#8230; <a title=\"Homebuilding At the Crossroads Of Changing Demographics\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/01\/23\/homebuilding-crossroads-of-changing-demographics\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,35],"tags":[1103,1003,1051,1106,78,1050,1105,1104,1107,1108,37,36],"class_list":["post-16389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-housing","tag-demographics","tag-dhi","tag-dr-horton-inc","tag-employment","tag-len","tag-lennar-corp","tag-mexican-migration","tag-prison-population","tag-profit-margin","tag-residential-construction","tag-tol","tag-toll-brothers-inc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Homebuilding At the Crossroads Of Changing Demographics - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/01\/23\/homebuilding-crossroads-of-changing-demographics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Homebuilding At the Crossroads Of Changing Demographics - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 21, 2013. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) On January 17th, NPR&#8217;s All Things Considered ran a story called &#8220;Homebuilding Is Booming, But Skilled Workers Are Scarce.&#8221; It was yet another story adding to the evidence that the tightness ... 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