{"id":16221,"date":"2013-01-09T01:58:02","date_gmt":"2013-01-09T09:58:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=16221"},"modified":"2013-01-09T01:58:02","modified_gmt":"2013-01-09T09:58:02","slug":"t2108-update-130108","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/01\/09\/t2108-update-130108\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (January 9, 2013) – Technical Tensions Build As Extreme Overbought Conditions Persist"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 81.5% (5th overbought day)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.6
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Initiate SMALL short positions, sell some longs<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nSomehow, the S&P 500 remains extremely overbought despite meandering ever so slightly lower. I assume that the persistence of extreme overbought conditions at the resistance of multi-year highs indicates that a spring is still winding tighter and tighter, ready to burst upward or downward with a well-placed catalyst.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 bides its time as traders await a resolution to an extreme overbought condition<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

In the meantime, the volatility index, the VIX, continues to trickle ever so slightly downward. It still looks ready to take a quick plunge lower before finally turning higher again (which I have stated in earlier posts seems highly likely within a month). This low VIX is adding to the tension building in the market.<\/p>\n

There are three other indicators that are trading on the edge of important trendlines: the Australian dollar (FXA), gold (GLD), and the dollar index. I am long overdue to update the on-going relationship between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500. In the meantime, I think this relationship is alive and well. AUD\/USD continues to trade right at the edge of a downtrend in place ever since the currency pair’s all-time high set in 2011. I have argued that this downtrend will hold<\/a>, but if it does not, I expect it will be accompanied by a fresh surge higher in the S&P 500.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar continues to linger around the downtrend from its all-time high<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Gold’s breakout last August in anticipation of QE3 came to an end in November as it retested the 200DMA. A fresh bounce essentially failed at the 50DMA and now gold, as represented by the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), is struggling to hold onto the 200DMA support. I remain as bullish as ever on gold, but I think further selling from here could gather momentum quickly. <\/p>\n


\n
\"GLD<\/a>
GLD clings to support at the 200DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related to AUD\/USD and GLD, the dollar index is once again knocking at the 200DMA. A breakout in November was surprisingly brief. I think another breakout here will be sustained. In previous posts, I have demonstrated how the dollar index tends to sustain large rallies\/sell-offs once it breaks the 200DMA up\/downward.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The dollar index threatens once again to break out against 200DMA resistance<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

These are all trends\/transitions worth watching as we wait for the market to make its next (explosive) move… <\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long VXX shares and puts; long SSO puts, long GLD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,921,20,512,135,511,62,21],"tags":[308,310,299,309,200,24,65,284,226,1597,1591],"class_list":["post-16221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-downtrend","category-forex","category-resistance","category-stock-market-trading","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-dxy0","tag-fxa","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-sp-500","tag-spdr-gold-shares","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (January 9, 2013) - Technical Tensions Build As Extreme Overbought Conditions Persist - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/01\/09\/t2108-update-130108\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (January 9, 2013) - Technical Tensions Build As Extreme Overbought Conditions Persist - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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