{"id":1603,"date":"2010-05-06T11:37:42","date_gmt":"2010-05-06T15:37:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=1603"},"modified":"2010-05-06T11:37:42","modified_gmt":"2010-05-06T15:37:42","slug":"earnings-faded-trends-break-not-oversold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/05\/06\/earnings-faded-trends-break-not-oversold\/","title":{"rendered":"Earnings Excitement Faded, Trends Breaking, and Still Not Oversold"},"content":{"rendered":"

Earnings excitement is one casualty of the current selling in the market. Several big cap stocks and multinational companies generated a lot of hype and attention from their earnings results this quarter. A number of those gains have been erased and then some. Four stocks have attracted my particular interest:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Apple (APPL) – A market darling that is a must own amongst institutional buyers.<\/li>\n
  2. Caterpillar (CAT) – I always watch it as an indicator of strength in cyclicals and the “China story.”<\/li>\n
  3. Intel (INTC) – Despite my expectations for peak margins, INTC has been able to manage earnings expectations and produce welcome results. <\/li>\n
  4. JPMorgan (JPM) – This bank is today’s best indicator of health in the financials (as opposed to just an indicator of willingness to speculate in financials).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    I have posted charts of these stocks from yesterday below. The current tops in these four stocks are dramatic, but only CAT looks like a convincing climactic top given the fade from the top on the day earnings were reported and the strong follow-through the next day (CAT printed a climactic top pattern in January<\/a> as well but it was nullified in April). Note that AAPL continued higher for a few days after its earnings, INTC churned before turning lower, and JPM sold off dramatically upon announcement of fraud charges against Goldman Sachs (GS). (Honorable mention goes to First Solar [FSLR] which today erased all of its post-earnings gains – click here for my review of their earnings<\/a>. I started scaling back into the stock today as it retested its 200DMA)<\/p>\n


    \n
    \"Even<\/a>
    Even Apple could not escape recent selling pressure<\/figcaption><\/figure>
    \n
    \n
    \"Can<\/a>
    Can CAT overcome its second climactic top of the year?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
    \n
    \n
    \"Is<\/a>
    Is Intel's magic finally fading?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
    \n
    \n
    \"JPM<\/a>
    JPM back to struggling with its 200DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure>
    \n<\/center>
    \n<\/p>\n

    While earnings excitement fades, trends are also breaking. The percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages (DMAs) (T2107<\/a>) has tumbled for the first time since the January-February correction. It was at 76% yesterday and at the time of writing it has dropped below 73% (see chart below). If it breaks the closing low of 69% from February, watch for selling pressure in the market to increase.<\/p>\n


    \n
    \"T2107<\/a>
    T2107 is reaching a critical level of support<\/figcaption><\/figure>
    \n<\/center>
    \n<\/p>\n

    Finally, the percentage of stocks trading above their 40DMAs (T2108<\/a>) has dropped fast. Yesterday, it closed at 38%. At the time of writing, it is now at 32%. The market is not considered short-term oversold until this indicator hits 20% or lower. At current rates of descent, T2107 will test its support just as T2108 finally hits the oversold level. If this happens, I will be looking for a further spike in the VIX (volatility index) as a powerful buying signal. However, a lower low for T2108 will send up a big red flag for the sustainability of the overall rally in the market. (Click here for my last review of the relationship between the VIX and T2108<\/a>).<\/p>\n


    \n
    \"Market<\/a>
    Market getting oversold but will T2108 make a new, lower low?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
    \n*All charts created using TeleChart:<\/strong>     <\/a>
    \n<\/center>
    \n<\/p>\n

    Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

    Full disclosure: long GS shares, long GS put spread, long FSLR<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Earnings excitement is one casualty of the current selling in the market. Several big cap stocks and multinational companies generated a lot of hype and attention from their earnings results this quarter. A number of those gains have been erased and then some. Four stocks have attracted my particular interest: Apple (APPL) – A market … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,62],"tags":[250,350,64,63,222,221,351,352,225,226],"class_list":["post-1603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apple","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-intc","tag-intel","tag-jpm","tag-jpmorgan","tag-t2107","tag-t2108"],"yoast_head":"\nEarnings Excitement Faded, Trends Breaking, and Still Not Oversold - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/05\/06\/earnings-faded-trends-break-not-oversold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Earnings Excitement Faded, Trends Breaking, and Still Not Oversold - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Earnings excitement is one casualty of the current selling in the market. 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