{"id":15954,"date":"2013-01-09T00:37:57","date_gmt":"2013-01-09T08:37:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=15954"},"modified":"2013-01-09T00:46:21","modified_gmt":"2013-01-09T08:46:21","slug":"options-trading-herbalife-more-insightful","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/01\/09\/options-trading-herbalife-more-insightful\/","title":{"rendered":"With the Endgame Known, Options Trading in Herbalife Provides Even More Insight"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 24, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1080021-with-the-endgame-known-options-trading-in-herbalife-provides-even-more-insight\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So it turns out that Bill Ackman, with his hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2012\/12\/20\/us-ackman-herbalife-idUSBRE8BJ0W120121220\" target=\"_blank\">the &#8220;big whale&#8221; behind the massive short position built against Herbalife<\/a> (HLF). <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/video\/bill-ackman-certain-herbalife-is-a-pyramid-scheme-RtAHqsHLSPK_zGuRA2LCzw.html\" target=\"_blank\">Ackman indicated that he has shorted more than 20M shares with over $1B at risk<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15955\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15955\" style=\"width: 553px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFSharesShort.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFSharesShort.png\" alt=\"Shares short against Herbalife have soared over the past year\" title=\"Shares short against Herbalife have soared over the past year\" width=\"563\" height=\"336\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15955\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFSharesShort.png 563w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFSharesShort-300x179.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 563px) 100vw, 563px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15955\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shares short against Herbalife have soared over the past year<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/symbol\/hlf\/short-interest\" target=\"_blank\">NASDAQ.com short interest<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>In stark contrast to the growing short position, <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q\/ks?s=HLF+Key+Statistics\" target=\"_blank\">21% of HLF&#8217;s float<\/a>, HLF&#8217;s stock stood firm, even increasing for a while, during both ramps in short interest. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1040711-large-insider-purchases-contrast-extreme-bearishness-in-herbalife\" target=\"_blank\">Throw in $3.1M of insider purchases in November by Herbalife COO Richard Goudis, and I figured HLF was good for a small buy<\/a>. I now recognize this as a tactical error given the main rumor had yet to get resolved: a surge in put buying aimed at profiting from some big event before the December 21st expiration. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Throughout November, traders ramped up purchases of December puts. The targeting is quite clear given the periodic and limited surges in open interest in select strikes. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15957\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15957\" style=\"width: 607px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFDecemberPuts.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFDecemberPuts.png\" alt=\"Traders target December puts in Herbalife\" title=\"Traders target December puts in Herbalife\" width=\"617\" height=\"3554\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15957\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFDecemberPuts.png 617w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFDecemberPuts-52x300.png 52w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 617px) 100vw, 617px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15957\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Traders target December puts in Herbalife<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Etrade.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>During November, December puts were not the only ones seeing action. Traders also loaded up puts with January expiration. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15965\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15965\" style=\"width: 587px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFJanuaryPuts.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFJanuaryPuts.png\" alt=\"Open interest soars for January puts on Herbalife\" title=\"Open interest soars for January puts on Herbalife\" width=\"597\" height=\"3746\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15965\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFJanuaryPuts.png 597w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFJanuaryPuts-163x1024.png 163w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 597px) 100vw, 597px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15965\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Open interest soars for January puts on Herbalife<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Etrade.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15970\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15970\" style=\"width: 581px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFFeb50Call.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFFeb50Call.png\" alt=\"The February $50 call was very popular at the beginning of November\" title=\"The February $50 call was very popular at the beginning of November\" width=\"591\" height=\"287\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15970\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFFeb50Call.png 591w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121221_HLFFeb50Call-300x145.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 591px) 100vw, 591px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15970\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The February $50 call was very popular at the beginning of November<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Etrade.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} <\/p>\n<p>The volume of trading on Friday, December 21st suggests that traders remain as bearish as ever for January but after that there could be a lot more ambivalence. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>With <a href=\"http:\/\/ir.herbalife.com\/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=728334\" target=\"_blank\">Herbalife set to conduct an analyst day conference on January 7, 2013<\/a> to answer the charges against the company, I am willing to hear them out and get their side of this story. If the COO&#8217;s massive purchase of stock means anything, I have to assume he will be working hard to support the success of that presentation. The market&#8217;s response going into and out from that meeting should be quite telling. For now, I am holding onto my small amount shares, and I even sold a February put into Friday&#8217;s plunge with the assumption that at some point HLF will experience a relatively large relief rally. Friday delivered a third straight day of high-volume selling with the stock reaching extremely oversold conditions; frequently such selling is followed by a sharp bounce.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 24, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1080021-with-the-endgame-known-options-trading-in-herbalife-provides-even-more-insight\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long HLF<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 24, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) So it turns out that Bill Ackman, with his hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, is the &#8220;big whale&#8221; behind the massive short position built against Herbalife (HLF). Ackman indicated that &#8230; <a title=\"With the Endgame Known, Options Trading in Herbalife Provides Even More Insight\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/01\/09\/options-trading-herbalife-more-insightful\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,338],"tags":[1075,1076,155,419],"class_list":["post-15954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-options","category-retail","tag-herbalife","tag-hlf","tag-options-trading","tag-short-interest"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>With the Endgame Known, Options Trading in Herbalife Provides Even More Insight - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/01\/09\/options-trading-herbalife-more-insightful\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"With the Endgame Known, Options Trading in Herbalife Provides Even More Insight - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 24, 2012. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) So it turns out that Bill Ackman, with his hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, is the &#8220;big whale&#8221; behind the massive short position built against Herbalife (HLF). Ackman indicated that ... 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