{"id":15591,"date":"2012-12-04T23:46:14","date_gmt":"2012-12-05T07:46:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=15591"},"modified":"2012-12-04T23:46:14","modified_gmt":"2012-12-05T07:46:14","slug":"stubborn-australian-dollar-attractive-play-yen-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/04\/stubborn-australian-dollar-attractive-play-yen-weakness\/","title":{"rendered":"Stubborn Australian Dollar Becomes Attractive Way to Play Yen Weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 5, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1045541-stubborn-australian-dollar-becomes-attractive-way-to-play-yen-weakness\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2012\/mr-12-36.html\" target=\"_blank\">After the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates on Monday night<\/a>, the Australian dollar (FXA) bounced down, up, drifted lower, and then rallied. It is too easy to call this a classic case of the market doing the opposite of expectations once news gets released. Instead, this apparent contrary action is simply part of <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1040101-soft-australian-retail-sales-reawakens-anticipation-of-rate-cut\" target=\"_blank\">an overall resilience in the Australian dollar that has been on display for quite some time<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>This resilience is presenting quite a challenge to the RBA as it attempts to weaken the currency through rate reductions. It is becoming more and more clear that the RBA will have to drive rates a <strong>lot<\/strong> lower before it can get the market&#8217;s attention, yet such a move seems unwarranted without a major economic crisis. Notably, nothing in the RBA&#8217;s statements indicate that the economy is experiencing major weakness or even that such weakness looms over the horizon. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The RBA&#8217;s concerns regarding the strong currency are supported by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/np\/ms\/2012\/092012.htm\" target=\"_blank\">an assessment of the Australian economy conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) back in September<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Overall, the IMF&#8217;s report is a well-balanced contrast to some of the bearish assessments I have read that almost exclusively focus on and highlight the negatives and risks in the Australian economy. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>While the relatively strong Australian dollar seems ready to stay aloft for quite some time &#8211; at least until the RBA gulps hard and sends rates much, much lower &#8211; the Japanese yen looks like a strong currency on its way to a major correction. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15601\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15601\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_USDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_USDJPY.png\" alt=\"USD\/JPY bounces off the 20DMA as consolidation continues off overheated uptrend\" title=\"USD\/JPY bounces off the 20DMA as consolidation continues off overheated uptrend\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15601\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_USDJPY.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_USDJPY-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15601\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">USD\/JPY bounces off the 20DMA as consolidation continues off overheated uptrend<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The Australian dollar looks even better against the yen. {snip} <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15602\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15602\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_AUDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_AUDJPY.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar broke out against the yen last month\" title=\"The Australian dollar broke out against the yen last month\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15602\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_AUDJPY.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_AUDJPY-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15602\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar broke out against the yen last month<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15603\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15603\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_AUDJPY-lt.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_AUDJPY-lt.png\" alt=\"Since the financial crisis, the Australian dollar has held its own against the Japanese yen\" title=\"Since the financial crisis, the Australian dollar has held its own against the Japanese yen\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15603\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_AUDJPY-lt.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121204_AUDJPY-lt-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15603\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Since the financial crisis, the Australian dollar has held its own against the Japanese yen<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 5, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1045541-stubborn-australian-dollar-becomes-attractive-way-to-play-yen-weakness\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long AUD\/JPY, short AUD\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) After the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates on Monday night, the Australian dollar (FXA) bounced down, up, drifted lower, and then rallied. It is too easy to call &#8230; <a title=\"Stubborn Australian Dollar Becomes Attractive Way to Play Yen Weakness\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/04\/stubborn-australian-dollar-attractive-play-yen-weakness\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,59,20,204],"tags":[772,308,310,309,513,433,138],"class_list":["post-15591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-economy","category-forex","category-japan","tag-audjpy","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-fxy","tag-imf","tag-japanese-yen"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stubborn Australian Dollar Becomes Attractive Way to Play Yen Weakness - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/04\/stubborn-australian-dollar-attractive-play-yen-weakness\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stubborn Australian Dollar Becomes Attractive Way to Play Yen Weakness - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 5, 2012. 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