{"id":15575,"date":"2012-12-25T11:14:52","date_gmt":"2012-12-25T19:14:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=15575"},"modified":"2012-12-25T11:14:52","modified_gmt":"2012-12-25T19:14:52","slug":"first-solars-breakout-demonstrates-the-opportunity-in-utility-scale-projects-despite-on-going-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/25\/first-solars-breakout-demonstrates-the-opportunity-in-utility-scale-projects-despite-on-going-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"First Solar’s Breakout Demonstrates the Opportunity In Utility-Scale Projects Despite On-Going Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 10, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

For over three months, First Solar (FSLR) has benefited from a lack of bad news. When FLSR announced on August 30th that it would halt deliveries of solar panels to its massive Agua Caliente project<\/a>, the stock tanked 18.7% in one day, ending a sharp rally ignited by earnings on August 1st. Construction at Agua Caliente was way ahead of schedule and the palpable concern at the time was that FSLR had pulled forward a lot of panel demand from future years into 2012 to meet near-term revenue and earnings targets. When I wrote three weeks later that FSLR’s rally was losing momentum<\/a>, I figured that the stock would soon experience follow-through to that selling. It took another two weeks for the stock to trade back down to levels from August 30th, but the stock has yet to look back since.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"First<\/a>
First Solar breaks out<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"After<\/a>
After hitting multi-year highs in mid-August, shares short in FSLR have dipped significantly for the first time since mid-February<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: NASDAQ.com short interest<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

With handwringing over Agua Caliente apparently left in the past, I took particular interest on November 15th when respected Maxim Group analyst Aaron Chew used FSLR’s last 10Q report<\/a> to estimate that 2013 EPS and margin guidance will disappoint. {snip}<\/p>\n

During the last earnings conference call<\/a>, FSLR answered a pipeline-related question by stating that the company has recognized revenue on 626MW of its 3GW pipeline. I found it telling that no analyst directly asked about Agua Caliente. Instead, analysts were trying to get a handle on things like FSLR’s international mix of business, competition, margins, and the bankability of the backlog.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

I remain comfortable with my earlier assessments that FSLR is for now just a trading stock<\/a> and that the best way to play the longer-term survival of the company is to sell long-term puts aka LEAPS<\/a> (articles written in August and March respectively). {snip}<\/p>\n

After scanning through the 10Q numbers that Chew used in his report, I decided to review the entire release. I did not find any smoking guns, but I did find some nuggets of interest that expanded upon info from the conference call. {snip}<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 10, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Full disclosure: short FSLR puts, also long calls and puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 10, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) For over three months, First Solar (FSLR) has benefited from a lack of bad news. 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