{"id":15560,"date":"2012-12-02T23:11:29","date_gmt":"2012-12-03T07:11:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=15560"},"modified":"2012-12-02T23:11:29","modified_gmt":"2012-12-03T07:11:29","slug":"soft-australian-retail-sales-reawakens-anticipation-of-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/02\/soft-australian-retail-sales-reawakens-anticipation-of-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Soft Australian Retail Sales Reawakens Anticipation of Rate Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1040101-soft-australian-retail-sales-reawakens-anticipation-of-rate-cut\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyfx.com\/calendar?tz=-8&#038;sort=date&#038;week=2012%2F1202&#038;eur=false&#038;usd=false&#038;jpy=false&#038;gbp=false&#038;chf=false&#038;aud=true&#038;cad=false&#038;nzd=false&#038;cny=false&#038;high=true&#038;medium=false&#038;low=false\" target=\"_blank\">Analyst consensus anticipates a rate cut at the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)<\/a>. I forgive you for being surprised if you have been keeping your eye on the value of the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15562\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15562\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121203_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121203_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The resilient Australian dollar\" title=\"The resilient Australian dollar\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15562\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121203_AUDUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121203_AUDUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15562\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The resilient Australian dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: FreeStockCharts.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>On December 2nd (the 3rd in Australia), the Australia Bureau of Statistics reported disappointing October retail sales. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyfx.com\/calendar?tz=-8&#038;sort=date&#038;week=2012%2F1202&#038;eur=false&#038;usd=false&#038;jpy=false&#038;gbp=false&#038;chf=false&#038;aud=true&#038;cad=false&#038;nzd=false&#038;cny=false&#038;high=false&#038;medium=true&#038;low=false\" target=\"_blank\">Consensus forecast was for 0.4% growth<\/a> but <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/AUSSTATS\/abs@.nsf\/Lookup\/8501.0Main+Features1Oct%202012?OpenDocument\" target=\"_blank\">the actuals came out flat<\/a>. {snip} While the weak retail sales could provide cover for an RBA cut, I still think any imminent cuts will be more motivated by a desire to weaken the currency than anything else.<\/p>\n<p>For example, overall growth of retail sales in Australia remains as healthy as ever over the last 4+ years.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15564\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15564\" style=\"width: 563px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121203_AustralianRetailSales.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121203_AustralianRetailSales.jpg\" alt=\"Australian Monthly Retail Sales (Turnover) - Seasonally Adjusted\" title=\"Australian Monthly Retail Sales (Turnover) - Seasonally Adjusted\" width=\"573\" height=\"330\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15564\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121203_AustralianRetailSales.jpg 573w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121203_AustralianRetailSales-300x172.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 573px) 100vw, 573px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15564\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Australian Monthly Retail Sales (Turnover) - Seasonally Adjusted<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/AUSSTATS\/abs@.nsf\/DetailsPage\/8501.0Oct%202012?OpenDocument\" target=\"_blank\">8501.0 &#8211; Retail Trade, Australia, Oct 2012<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/meisubs.NSF\/log?openagent&#038;850101.xls&#038;8501.0&#038;Time%20Series%20Spreadsheet&#038;C8FAA28FB17E7D7FCA257AC6001318D4&#038;0&#038;Oct%202012&#038;03.12.2012&#038;Latest\" target=\"_blank\">Downloads<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1040101-soft-australian-retail-sales-reawakens-anticipation-of-rate-cut\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net short Australian dollar <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Analyst consensus anticipates a rate cut at the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). I forgive you for being surprised if you have been keeping your eye on &#8230; <a title=\"Soft Australian Retail Sales Reawakens Anticipation of Rate Cut\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/02\/soft-australian-retail-sales-reawakens-anticipation-of-rate-cut\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,59,20,338],"tags":[308,310,309,448],"class_list":["post-15560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-economy","category-forex","category-retail","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-rydex-currencyshares-australian-dollar-trust-etf"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Soft Australian Retail Sales Reawakens Anticipation of Rate Cut - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/02\/soft-australian-retail-sales-reawakens-anticipation-of-rate-cut\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Soft Australian Retail Sales Reawakens Anticipation of Rate Cut - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. 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