{"id":15548,"date":"2012-12-16T10:58:51","date_gmt":"2012-12-16T18:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=15548"},"modified":"2012-12-16T10:58:51","modified_gmt":"2012-12-16T18:58:51","slug":"large-insider-purchases-contrast-extreme-bearishness-in-herbalife","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/16\/large-insider-purchases-contrast-extreme-bearishness-in-herbalife\/","title":{"rendered":"Large Insider Purchases Contrast Extreme Bearishness In Herbalife"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1040711-large-insider-purchases-contrast-extreme-bearishness-in-herbalife\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I was absolutely fascinated by a recent Seeking Alpha piece titled &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1038001-the-surprising-truth-behind-herbalife-put-volume\" target=\"_blank\">The Surprising Truth Behind Herbalife Put Volume<\/a>.&#8221; It is a revealing treatise and a cautionary reminder of why traders must not jump to quick conclusions in interpreting large options trades. In the case of Herbalife (HLF), author Richard Pearson explains how large volumes of puts traded were likely executed by a trader interested in hedging a large short position, similar to the way that an investor might sell covered calls. When other traders rush in to buy options in the hopes of riding coattails, they further drive up implied volatility which in turn provides richer premiums for selling these same options. (I covered how fear-driven put volume that follows the trades of people with advanced knowledge\/insight has a very short shelf life in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1032291-monster-spike-on-mild-fda-letter-setup-by-previous-fear-based-trading\" target=\"_blank\">Monster Spike On Mild FDA Letter Setup By Previous Fear-Based Trading<\/a>&#8220;). A $2.0M purchase of shares by HLF COO Richard Goudis has greatly increased the stakes for shorts &#8211; who are now <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q\/ks?s=HLF+Key+Statistics\" target=\"_blank\">17% of HLF&#8217;s float<\/a> &#8211; and will perhaps motivate even more hedging, if not an outright short squeeze.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15555\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15555\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121130_HLF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121130_HLF.png\" alt=\"A tough November for HLF culminates in what looks like a washout of selling\" title=\"A tough November for HLF culminates in what looks like a washout of selling\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15555\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121130_HLF.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121130_HLF-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15555\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A tough November for HLF culminates in what looks like a washout of selling<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>All things considered, I am inclined to take a bullish bias on HLF. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15556\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15556\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121130_HLF-YTD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121130_HLF-YTD.png\" alt=\"A roller coaster 2012 for HLF: a near 40% run-up gives way to a May collapse and a reluctant recovery\" title=\"A roller coaster 2012 for HLF: a near 40% run-up gives way to a May collapse and a reluctant recovery\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15556\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121130_HLF-YTD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/121130_HLF-YTD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15556\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A roller coaster 2012 for HLF: a near 40% run-up gives way to a May collapse and a reluctant recovery<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1040711-large-insider-purchases-contrast-extreme-bearishness-in-herbalife\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I was absolutely fascinated by a recent Seeking Alpha piece titled &#8220;The Surprising Truth Behind Herbalife Put Volume.&#8221; It is a revealing treatise and a cautionary reminder of why traders must &#8230; <a title=\"Large Insider Purchases Contrast Extreme Bearishness In Herbalife\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/16\/large-insider-purchases-contrast-extreme-bearishness-in-herbalife\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,32,338],"tags":[1075,1076,453,155],"class_list":["post-15548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-options","category-retail","tag-herbalife","tag-hlf","tag-insider-stock-buy","tag-options-trading"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Large Insider Purchases Contrast Extreme Bearishness In Herbalife - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/12\/16\/large-insider-purchases-contrast-extreme-bearishness-in-herbalife\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Large Insider Purchases Contrast Extreme Bearishness In Herbalife - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. 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