{"id":15340,"date":"2012-11-19T22:37:25","date_gmt":"2012-11-20T06:37:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=15340"},"modified":"2012-11-19T22:46:20","modified_gmt":"2012-11-20T06:46:20","slug":"t2108-update-121119","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/11\/19\/t2108-update-121119\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 19, 2012) – A Powermove Statement, Oversold No More!"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 30.0% (ends previous oversold period at 3 days)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 15.2
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):<\/p>\n

S&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nWow. Now THAT was an oversold bounce. T2108 jumped 10 percentage points to 30.0%, putting a dramatic end to the last oversold period. The S&P 500 jumped 2.0% for a powermove that completed a bounce that started on Friday. The index made a major statement by even powering right through its 200DMA.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 puts on a show<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I sold all my SSO calls soon after the open since I expected the 200DMA to hold as resistance. However, as promised, I held onto my SSO shares. While my strategy is based on waiting out the Fiscal Cliff yo-yo, it has now occurred to me that this tiered approach helps solve a problem I have had under-utilizing post-oversold rallies. Selling the calls allows me to lock in profits and to provide some cushion for taking the downside risk with the SSO shares. With the S&P 500 closing above the 200DMA, I have to consider an imminent retest of the (downward sloping) 50DMA. For conservative traders who were waiting for a spike in the VIX, the choice buying opportunity has passed. For conservative traders waiting on T2108 to exit oversold conditions before buying, I advise waiting a little bit more to confirm that the 200DMA can hold.<\/p>\n

I am also holding onto my QQQ shares for now. Today’s leap seems to confirm the bottoming pattern I noted on Friday<\/a>. Apple (AAPL) led the way bigtime for technology stocks. I ran out of time to write a post on the stock to quantify just how oversold it was. AAPL was a major rubber band waiting to snap back, but I certainly did not envision a SEVEN PERCENT one-day jump! (I sold a call spread a tad bit too early!) <\/p>\n


\n
\"AAPL's<\/a>
AAPL's revenge was impressive but a downtrend remains in place as defined by the 20DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

AAPL last bounced this vigorously in response to April earnings with a 8.9% one-day surge. Just like today, AAPL ran right into a declining 20DMA. The downtrend that led to this bounce lasted much longer and was much steeper than April’s decline. I will be watching AAPL even more closely now. (Also note that before this year, the last time AAPL performed this well was a 7.7% jump on May 10, 2010. Before that? The 2008 panic produced five days ranging from 8.0 to 12.6%.)<\/p>\n

Finally, I am noting that Friday’s plunge in the VIX may have signaled today’s rally. Just as a big plunge in the VIX on August 2nd, seemed to signal a strong upward reaction to the monthly employment numbers reported the next day. Yes – I will soon be studying the numbers to discern whether a tradeable pattern has emerged here.<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO calls and shares, long VXX shares and puts, long QQQ, long AAPL shares and put spread<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[250,534,1065,535,65,446,226,1597,303,929,120],"class_list":["post-15340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-powershares-qqq-trust","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-sso","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix","tag-volatilty","tag-vxx"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (November 19, 2012) - A Powermove Statement, Oversold No More! - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/11\/19\/t2108-update-121119\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (November 19, 2012) - A Powermove Statement, Oversold No More! - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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