{"id":15289,"date":"2012-11-17T19:02:17","date_gmt":"2012-11-18T03:02:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=15289"},"modified":"2012-11-17T19:02:17","modified_gmt":"2012-11-18T03:02:17","slug":"positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/11\/17\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\/","title":{"rendered":"The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election Rarely Lasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 17, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1015881-the-positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-for-re-election-rarely-lasts\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In early, July I quantified the very unique tendency of the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) to deliver strongly positive returns in the three months (between July-end and October-end) before a Presidential election featuring an incumbent (see &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/695671-the-positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-for-re-election\" target=\"_blank\">The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election<\/a>&#8220;). The analysis was motivated by S&#038;P Capital IQ&#8217;s Sam Stovall who interpreted this effect in the opposite way: positive returns during this time period are predictive of an incumbent victory. It turns out Presidential incumbents tend to win re-election in the U.S., so I disagreed with Stovall&#8217;s interpretation. I next emphasized the attractiveness of this pre-election trade by noting that <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/773191-a-5-decline-in-the-s-p-500-within-3-months-would-be-a-gift\" target=\"_blank\">the maximum drawdown over this period is quite mild compared to the average 3-month period between July-end and October-end<\/a>. The pre-election trade featuring an incumbent worked again this year, but these gains were short-lived. It turns out that the gains from the pre-election trade rarely last; the sugar-high is not sticky.<\/p>\n<p>{snip} <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15295\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15295\" style=\"width: 548px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradePerf.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradePerf.jpg\" alt=\"Performance of the S&amp;P 500 From July-End to October-End During Election Years With A Running Incumbent\" title=\"Performance of the S&amp;P 500 From July-End to October-End During Election Years With A Running Incumbent\" width=\"558\" height=\"376\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15295\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradePerf.jpg 558w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradePerf-300x202.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15295\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Performance of the S&P 500 From July-End to October-End During Election Years With A Running Incumbent<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15291\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15291\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121116_SP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121116_SP500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 has already lost all its gains from the pre-election trade\" title=\"The S&amp;P 500 has already lost all its gains from the pre-election trade\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121116_SP500.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121116_SP500-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15291\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The S&P 500 has already lost all its gains from the pre-election trade<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>By the second day after the election, all the gains from the pre-election trade disappeared&#8230;{snip}&#8230; Of the ten re-election campaigns since World War II, this year&#8217;s is the only one to deliver positive gains during the pre-election period only to go negative right after the election. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>A wide gulf exists between the bottom performers and the rest of the pre-election periods. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15299\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15299\" style=\"width: 543px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradeDuration.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradeDuration.jpg\" alt=\"Duration** of Gains from the Pre-Election Trade With A Running Incumbent\" title=\"Duration** of Gains from the Pre-Election Trade With A Running Incumbent\" width=\"553\" height=\"333\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15299\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradeDuration.jpg 553w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradeDuration-300x180.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 553px) 100vw, 553px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15299\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Duration** of Gains from the Pre-Election Trade With A Running Incumbent<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for price performance charts: Prices from Yahoo!Finance; <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/U.S._presidential_election\" target=\"_blank\">election info from Wikipedia<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n{snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 17, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1015881-the-positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-for-re-election-rarely-lasts\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long SSO shares and call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In early, July I quantified the very unique tendency of the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) to deliver strongly positive returns in the three months (between July-end and October-end) before a Presidential election &#8230; <a title=\"The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election Rarely Lasts\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/11\/17\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[997,62],"tags":[998,616,65,1597],"class_list":["post-15289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-analysis","category-technical-analysis","tag-correlations","tag-presidential-election","tag-sp-500","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election Rarely Lasts - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/11\/17\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election Rarely Lasts - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 17, 2012. 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Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/11\/17\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-11-18T03:02:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradePerf.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/17\\\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/17\\\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election Rarely Lasts\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-18T03:02:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/17\\\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":375,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/17\\\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/121117_PreElectionIncumbentTradePerf.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"correlations\",\"presidential election\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Technical Analysis\"],\"articleSection\":[\"S&amp;P 500 Analysis\",\"Technical Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/17\\\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/17\\\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/17\\\/positive-trade-when-incumbent-presidents-run-rarely-lasts\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election Rarely Lasts - 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