{"id":15112,"date":"2012-11-03T11:05:02","date_gmt":"2012-11-03T18:05:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=15112"},"modified":"2012-11-03T11:05:02","modified_gmt":"2012-11-03T18:05:02","slug":"t2108-update-121102","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/11\/03\/t2108-update-121102\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 2, 2012) – Churn and Burn"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 41.1%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 17.6
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):<\/p>\n

S&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe market was closed for the first two days of this week due to the damage and chaos of Hurricane Sandy. The market opened to what I am calling churn and burn. On Wednesday, the market ended flat after first opening up, selling off to a small loss, and then bouncing back to end flat. This turned out to be a microcosm of the next two days which featured a huge rally on Thursday followed by a huge sell-off on Friday. Neither move made much sense, so it is just as well the S&P 500 ended the week with no progress. I think this week will be a microcosm for the year.<\/p>\n

The larger technical context to trading this week was support from the May, 2012 closing high and overhead resistance from the S&P 500’s QE3 price and the 50DMA. The triple-top that printed across September and October still loom large overhead.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 just churned and burned between support and resistance this week<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108 ended the week three percentage points higher than last week. I had thought this would be the week T2108 hits oversold territory for the first time in five months. Now, it seems unlikely to do so for the foreseeable future. <\/p>\n

On either side of the S&P 500 are two important developments: sinking tech stocks and resilient financial stocks. The NASDAQ (QQQ) continues to teeter on critical 200DMA support. Friday printed a bearish engulfing pattern that seems certain to weigh the index through a major breakdown. On the other hand, the SPDRs Select Sector Financial ETF (XLF) remains comfortably above BOTH its uptrending 50 and 200DMAs.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ continues to teeter on a major breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"Unlike<\/a>
Unlike the major indices, the financials are still enjoying an uptrend from the June lows<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I think it is impossible to say which side will win, but I am now monitoring both developments carefully. For now, my bias remains mildly bearish, somewhat moderated by what still seems like bullish divergence from the currency market<\/a>. This bias will change if T2108 prints oversold OR the S&P 500 manages to overcome triple top resistance. Given my expectations for a “churn and burn” market through the rest of this year, I doubt either milestone will get hit. Each milestone could get tested and generate false hopes and\/or doom. The biggest wildcard will be the market’s response to the approaching fiscal cliff deadline.<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO calls, long VXX shares and puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[548,219,135,62],"tags":[413,65,734,226,1597,311],"class_list":["post-15112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-financials","category-high-tech","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spdrs-select-sector-financial-etf","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-xlf"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (November 2, 2012) - Churn and Burn - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/11\/03\/t2108-update-121102\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (November 2, 2012) - Churn and Burn - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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