{"id":14778,"date":"2012-10-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-10-18T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=14778"},"modified":"2012-10-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-10-18T07:00:00","slug":"consol-energy-breakout-survives-earnings-guidance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/10\/18\/consol-energy-breakout-survives-earnings-guidance\/","title":{"rendered":"Consol Energy&#8217;s Breakout Survives A Reduction In Earnings Guidance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 17, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/928511-consol-energy-s-breakout-survives-a-reduction-in-earnings-guidance\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Consol Energy (CNX) is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.consolenergy.com\/about-us\/quick-facts.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">the U.S.&#8217;s largest producer of coal from underground mines<\/a>. {snip} The charts below show how CNX recently broke out and how it has traded relative to its QE2 and QE3 prices (the price of the stock right before quantitative easing was announced &#8211; in CNX&#8217;s case, these price coincidentally are the same!).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_14787\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14787\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNX.png\" alt=\"CNX breaks out from primary downtrend\" title=\"CNX breaks out from primary downtrend\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14787\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNX.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNX-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14787\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">CNX breaks out from primary downtrend<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_14789\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14789\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNX-weekly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNX-weekly.png\" alt=\"CNX is well off its pre-recession highs but QE2 and now QE3 appear to be contributing to an approximate floor in the stock\" title=\"CNX is well off its pre-recession highs but QE2 and now QE3 appear to be contributing to an approximate floor in the stock\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14789\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNX-weekly.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNX-weekly-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14789\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">CNX is well off its pre-recession highs but QE2 and now QE3 appear to be contributing to an approximate floor in the stock<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Since the June lows, CNX has steadily churned higher with higher lows along the way. During this time, CNX <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/phoenix.zhtml?c=66439&#038;p=irol-newsArticle&#038;ID=1707781&#038;highlight=\" target=\"_blank\">extended worker vacations<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/phoenix.zhtml?c=66439&#038;p=irol-newsArticle&#038;ID=1710591&#038;highlight=\" target=\"_blank\">idled mines<\/a>, and even experienced <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/phoenix.zhtml?c=66439&#038;p=irol-newsArticle&#038;ID=1719869&#038;highlight=\" target=\"_blank\">operational failures<\/a>. The last announcement of idled production came on September 4th when <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/phoenix.zhtml?c=66439&#038;p=irol-newsArticle&#038;ID=1731093&#038;highlight=\" target=\"_blank\">CNX temporarily idled its Buchanan Mine that produces metallurgical coal and partially idled its Amonate Mining Complex<\/a>. CNX cited weak global market conditions for steel. Yet, through all this, CNX has manged to rally around 34% from its lows.<\/p>\n<p>So, it is probably no surprise then that the stock suffered so little when the company officially <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/phoenix.zhtml?c=66439&#038;p=irol-newsArticle&#038;ID=1745089&#038;highlight=\" target=\"_blank\">announced on October 15th that it expects to announce a loss in its report on third quarter earnings<\/a>: <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>However, note that none of these dynamics has won over shorts. Short interest in CNX soared starting in the first half of March. During that time, <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/phoenix.zhtml?c=66439&#038;p=irol-newsArticle&#038;ID=1669319&#038;highlight=\" target=\"_blank\">CNX adjusted sales guidance downward and temporarily idled longwall mining at its Buchanan Mine<\/a>. The stock fell as much as 10% that day before quickly rebounding to close directly above its QE2 (and now QE3) price. That support finally gave way two months later during the stock market&#8217;s May swoon. CNX now trades exactly at its close March 1st, right before shorts ramped up positions.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_14793\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14793\" style=\"width: 451px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNXShortInterest.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNXShortInterest.jpg\" alt=\"Short interest has remained steady even as CNX has steadily risen off its bottom\" title=\"Short interest has remained steady even as CNX has steadily risen off its bottom\" width=\"461\" height=\"382\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14793\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNXShortInterest.jpg 461w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121016_CNXShortInterest-300x248.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 461px) 100vw, 461px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14793\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Short interest has remained steady even as CNX has steadily risen off its bottom<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/symbol\/cnx\/short-interest#ixzz29XAAsfu1\" target=\"_blank\">NASDAQ.com short interest for CNX<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 17, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/928511-consol-energy-s-breakout-survives-a-reduction-in-earnings-guidance\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long CNX calls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Consol Energy (CNX) is the U.S.&#8217;s largest producer of coal from underground mines. {snip} The charts below show how CNX recently broke out and how it has traded relative to its &#8230; <a title=\"Consol Energy&#8217;s Breakout Survives A Reduction In Earnings Guidance\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/10\/18\/consol-energy-breakout-survives-earnings-guidance\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,199,220],"tags":[634,686,1034,49,676,1035,419],"class_list":["post-14778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china","category-commodities","category-earnings","tag-cnx","tag-coal","tag-consol-energy","tag-earnings-guidance","tag-iron-ore","tag-metallurgical-coal","tag-short-interest"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Consol Energy&#039;s Breakout Survives A Reduction In Earnings Guidance - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/10\/18\/consol-energy-breakout-survives-earnings-guidance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Consol Energy&#039;s Breakout Survives A Reduction In Earnings Guidance - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 17, 2012. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Consol Energy (CNX) is the U.S.&#8217;s largest producer of coal from underground mines. {snip} The charts below show how CNX recently broke out and how it has traded relative to its ... 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