{"id":14559,"date":"2012-10-06T07:04:49","date_gmt":"2012-10-06T14:04:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=14559"},"modified":"2012-10-06T07:04:49","modified_gmt":"2012-10-06T14:04:49","slug":"reserve-bank-of-australia-downgrades-economic-conditions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/10\/06\/reserve-bank-of-australia-downgrades-economic-conditions\/","title":{"rendered":"Reserve Bank of Australia Downgrades Economic Conditions, Eyes Lower Currency"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 2, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/898721-reserve-bank-of-australia-downgrades-economic-conditions-eyes-lower-currency\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to stand pat on rates in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2012\/mr-12-30.html\" target=\"_blank\">its latest statement on monetary policy<\/a>. Instead, the RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25% and, in the process, the RBA clarified that it is indeed interested in working the Australian dollar (FXA) lower in the face of weakening global economic conditions. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Overall, the RBA seems to have backed off from <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/886621-reserve-bank-of-australia-emphasizes-overall-resilience-of-the-australian-economy\" target=\"_blank\">its more optimistic assessment of the Australian and Chinese economies<\/a> that I read in the minutes from the previous statement on monetary policy. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the RBA seemed to imply in this statement that there is some sizable chance that the non-mining sector will not be ready to pick up the anticipated slackening in the resource sector next year&#8230;{snip} {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The upshot of these downward revisions is a more bearish outlook on the Australian and the global economy. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_14569\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14569\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121001_GBPAUD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121001_GBPAUD.png\" alt=\"The British pound appears ready to break out against the Australian dollar\" title=\"The British pound appears ready to break out against the Australian dollar\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14569\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121001_GBPAUD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/121001_GBPAUD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14569\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The British pound appears ready to break out against the Australian dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: FreeStockCharts.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>So with the RBA&#8217;s latest statement, I increase my bearish from marginal to &#8220;mild.&#8221; {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Finally, given <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/09\/24\/estimate-intraday-moves-sp500-using-australian-dollar\/\" target=\"_blank\">the tight correlation between the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) and the Australian dollar<\/a>, my shift in bias also implies that I will be shifting toward a bearish bias against the stock market in the near-term.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 2, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/898721-reserve-bank-of-australia-downgrades-economic-conditions-eyes-lower-currency\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: short EUR\/AUD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to stand pat on rates in its latest statement on monetary policy. Instead, the RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25% &#8230; <a title=\"Reserve Bank of Australia Downgrades Economic Conditions, Eyes Lower Currency\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/10\/06\/reserve-bank-of-australia-downgrades-economic-conditions\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,59,20],"tags":[308,310,996,592,306,203],"class_list":["post-14559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-economy","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-euraud","tag-gbpaud","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Reserve Bank of Australia Downgrades Economic Conditions, Eyes Lower Currency - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/10\/06\/reserve-bank-of-australia-downgrades-economic-conditions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reserve Bank of Australia Downgrades Economic Conditions, Eyes Lower Currency - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 2, 2012. 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