{"id":14501,"date":"2012-10-18T00:19:31","date_gmt":"2012-10-18T07:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=14501"},"modified":"2012-10-18T00:19:31","modified_gmt":"2012-10-18T07:19:31","slug":"best-currency-setups-to-start-the-fourth-quarter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/10\/18\/best-currency-setups-to-start-the-fourth-quarter\/","title":{"rendered":"The Best Currency Setups to Start the Fourth Quarter"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

The major paper currencies have an on-going problem – many of the financial authorities in charge of preserving their “value” are actively trying to drive that value downward, jawboning for a decline, and\/or wishing beyond hope for a decline. Currencies are an active component of economic recovery programs and likely will remain so until the global economy returns to trend growth. As a result, very few trends have emerged in the major currencies since the financial crisis as traders have bounced from one momentary theme to the next.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Here are the trends using representative currency pairs – the solid black lines define the overall trend from late 2008.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Japanese yen has show relentless strength<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"The<\/a>
The franc's trend was accelerating until the SNB stepped in with a floor<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for these and all other charts except where otherwise noted: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This landscape produces a lot of landmines for currency traders looking for reasons to maintain bullish positions on any currency. I provide this backdrop as a reminder that almost no emerging trend in currencies can be expected to last beyond the short-term. On the other side of every long idea is a central bank and\/or other assorted authorities who are actively interested in working against that long. In other words, the clock is ticking on almost every trade. Thus, my currency setups to start the fourth quarter must be interpreted as plays for “right now”; most are not long-range forecasts or extended projections.<\/p>\n

{snip} The U.S. dollar is a great example of the trendless meandering of most major currencies against each other.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The U.S. dollar has essentially gone nowhere for over four years<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The trade-weighted index has also bounced around without trend with 2011 matching the low from 2008.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Trade<\/a>
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

With this backdrop, here are the setups I am watching to start the fourth quarter:<\/p>\n

Australian dollar<\/strong>
\n{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar has continued to strengthen against the euro<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"The<\/a>
The euro's recent rally against the Australian dollar has stalled at the 200DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"The<\/a>
The pound appears to be printing a lasting bottom against the Australian dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"The<\/a>
The pound has already found support at the 200DMA against the Aussie and looks ready for a breakout<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The uptrend in the Australian dollar essentially ended in late 2010 although it did hit record highs in 2011<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The euro<\/strong>
\n{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The ECB has underwritten a bottom in the euro<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The euro has experienced waves of despair and euphoria against the U.S. dollar over the past 4+ years<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The euro has bottomed against the British pound but will not likely make much more progress from current levels<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"How<\/a>
How far can the euro continue to lift over the Swiss franc?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

British pound<\/strong>
\n{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A tightening range for GBP\/USD that seems bound to break soon to the upside<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"The<\/a>
The pound experienced a swift run after the Olympics ended but now needs to break resistance at 1.63<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"It<\/a>
It is subtle, but the pound is actually slowly lifting off major lows against the Japanese yen<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"Both<\/a>
Both the 50 and 200DMAs are now supporting the overall uptrend from the lows<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Japanese yen<\/strong>
\n{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"78<\/a>
78 has become a key battleground for USD\/JPY<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Canadian dollar<\/strong>
\n{snip}<\/p>\n

Summary<\/strong>
\nI start the fourth quarter with an empty plate looking for trades. I am waiting for the next RBA monetary policy statement to confirm my expectations for Aussie interest rates. I am bullish on the British pound but waiting for a fresh breakout against the U.S. and Australian dollars. I am looking to see whether the euro will hold support against the U.S. dollar. Finally, I am keeping an eye on opportunities to short the Japanese yen. <\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The major paper currencies have an on-going problem – many of the financial authorities in charge of preserving their “value” are actively trying to drive that value downward, jawboning for a … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,794,58,20,204,990],"tags":[115,1032,334],"class_list":["post-14501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-europe","category-federal-reserve","category-forex","category-japan","category-switzerland","tag-monetary-policy","tag-qe3","tag-swiss-national-bank"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Best Currency Setups to Start the Fourth Quarter - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/10\/18\/best-currency-setups-to-start-the-fourth-quarter\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Best Currency Setups to Start the Fourth Quarter - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 1, 2012. 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