{"id":13797,"date":"2012-08-29T18:21:26","date_gmt":"2012-08-30T01:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=13797"},"modified":"2012-08-29T18:36:44","modified_gmt":"2012-08-30T01:36:44","slug":"t2108-update-120829","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/29\/t2108-update-120829\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (August 29, 2012) – Pavlovian Market Tap Dances Between Breakout and Breakdown"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 67.7%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 17.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold.<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):<\/p>\n

S&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nLast week, the Pavlovian market jumping at another mention of old QE3 news<\/a>. This week, the Pavlovian market anxiously awaits word from Jackson Hole, Bernanke’s word specifically. For three straight days the S&P 500 has swung in a tight range directly above support from the May, 2012 high. Directly above is the tantalizing line of resistance from 52-week highs which remains the bearish scene of a false breakout<\/a>.<\/p>\n


\n
\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500 tap dances between a breakout and a breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108 is also going nowhere, remaining between 65% and 69% since dropping out of overbought conditions a week ago. <\/p>\n

The VIX however is NOT sitting still. At 17 now, the VIX has steadily risen in a straight line from its lows on August 17th at 13.4. I am interpreting this move bearishly given the Australian dollar continues to break down. I have written numerous times demonstrating the convenient relationship between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500. Today, the bearish divergence rose its ugly head again as AUD\/USD slid below its 200DMA, confirming the breakdown from the 50DMA just on Monday.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Australian<\/a>
Australian dollar continues its slow meltdown<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Given these technical setups, Jackson Hole could indeed deliver another one of those critical junctures, whether up or down. For the Australian dollar, I am making a small bet that it has one more bounce left before dropping back to parity against the U.S. dollar. For the S&P 500, it is wait and see until support or resistance next breaks…and of course, since I think the Australian dollar will continue to slide downward, I think the S&P 500 will eventually “have to” follow as well.<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\nClick chart for extended view with S&P 500 fully scaled vertically (updated at least once a week)
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO puts, net long Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,135,62],"tags":[308,310,448,65,226,1597,303,931],"class_list":["post-13797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-rydex-currencyshares-australian-dollar-trust-etf","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (August 29, 2012) - Pavlovian Market Tap Dances Between Breakout and Breakdown - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/29\/t2108-update-120829\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (August 29, 2012) - Pavlovian Market Tap Dances Between Breakout and Breakdown - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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