{"id":13732,"date":"2012-08-27T22:08:26","date_gmt":"2012-08-28T05:08:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=13732"},"modified":"2012-08-27T23:42:43","modified_gmt":"2012-08-28T06:42:43","slug":"wide-options-skew-heighten-risk-yelp-lockup-expiration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/27\/wide-options-skew-heighten-risk-yelp-lockup-expiration\/","title":{"rendered":"Wide Options Skew Heightens Risk of Trading Yelp.com Lockup Expiration"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 27, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/831621-wide-options-skew-heightened-risks-of-trading-yelp-com-lockup-expiration\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q\/ks?s=yelp&#038;ql=1\" target=\"_blank\">Yelp.com (YELP) has a float of 16.59M shares and shares outstanding of 61.2M<\/a>. According to Eric Savitz, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/ericsavitz\/2012\/08\/22\/yelp-the-pre-lockup-rush-for-the-exits-rolls-on\/\" target=\"_blank\">52.7M shares (Class B) are available to start trading on August 29th as Yelp&#8217;s IPO 190-day lockup expires<\/a>, representing a potentially tremendous flood of shares for the market to swallow. Interestingly, <a href=\"http:\/\/ipoportal.edgar-online.com\/ipo\/displayFundamentals.asp?cikid=691649&#038;fnid=68649&#038;IPO=1&#038;coname=YELP+INC\" target=\"_blank\">SEC filings show that shareholders only sold 50,000 of the 7.15M shares offered<\/a> (Savitz claims none). So it is very possible YELP insiders have built up a lot of pent-up interest in selling, especially with the stock market testing multi-year highs and <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/796711-another-blow-off-top-for-yelp-com\" target=\"_blank\">YELP dropping precipitously three times from the stocks&#8217;s highest close<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Options prices on YELP clearly show the heavy expectation toward additional downside in the wake of this lock-up. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13733\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13733\" style=\"width: 214px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_YELP-impliedvolatility.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_YELP-impliedvolatility.png\" alt=\"YELP implied volatility (as of 8\/24 close) shows a large skew between calls and puts\" title=\"YELP implied volatility (as of 8\/24 close) shows a large skew between calls and puts\" width=\"224\" height=\"621\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13733\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_YELP-impliedvolatility.png 224w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_YELP-impliedvolatility-108x300.png 108w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 224px) 100vw, 224px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13733\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">YELP implied volatility (as of 8\/24 close) shows a large skew between calls and puts<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>For comparison, here are the implied volatilities of Linked.com (LNKD).. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13735\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13735\" style=\"width: 211px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_LNKD-impliedvolatility.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_LNKD-impliedvolatility.png\" alt=\"LNKD imlpied volatility for options expiring in September\" title=\"LNKD imlpied volatility for options expiring in September\" width=\"221\" height=\"492\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13735\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13735\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">LNKD imlpied volatility for options expiring in September<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for tables: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.schaeffersresearch.com\/streetools\/options\/implied_montage.aspx?ticker=YELP\" target=\"_blank\">Schaeffers Investment Research<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Of the options available now, I would prefer to buy put spreads (these nullify much of the extremes in premium) or to short the stock immediately ahead of the event and look to close out the position soon after. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>{sip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13747\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13747\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_YELP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_YELP.png\" alt=\"YELP&#039;s triple top\" title=\"YELP&#039;s triple top\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13747\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_YELP.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120827_YELP-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13747\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">YELP&#039;s triple top<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 27, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/831621-wide-options-skew-heightened-risks-of-trading-yelp-com-lockup-expiration\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 27, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Yelp.com (YELP) has a float of 16.59M shares and shares outstanding of 61.2M. According to Eric Savitz, 52.7M shares (Class B) are available to start trading on August 29th as Yelp&#8217;s &#8230; <a title=\"Wide Options Skew Heightens Risk of Trading Yelp.com Lockup Expiration\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/27\/wide-options-skew-heighten-risk-yelp-lockup-expiration\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[599,32],"tags":[1023,629,579,1024,155,919,918],"class_list":["post-13732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-internet","category-options","tag-implied-volatility","tag-linkedin-corporation","tag-lnkd","tag-options-skew","tag-options-trading","tag-yelp","tag-yelp-com"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Wide Options Skew Heightens Risk of Trading Yelp.com Lockup Expiration - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/27\/wide-options-skew-heighten-risk-yelp-lockup-expiration\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wide Options Skew Heightens Risk of Trading Yelp.com Lockup Expiration - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 27, 2012. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Yelp.com (YELP) has a float of 16.59M shares and shares outstanding of 61.2M. According to Eric Savitz, 52.7M shares (Class B) are available to start trading on August 29th as Yelp&#8217;s ... 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