{"id":13585,"date":"2012-08-27T22:31:36","date_gmt":"2012-08-28T05:31:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=13585"},"modified":"2012-08-27T22:31:36","modified_gmt":"2012-08-28T05:31:36","slug":"rba-identifies-australian-dollars-support-foreign-demand-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/27\/rba-identifies-australian-dollars-support-foreign-demand-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA Identifies Australian Dollar&#8217;s Support from Foreign Demand for Bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 21, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/819081-rba-identifies-australian-dollar-s-support-from-foreign-demand-for-bonds\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/monetary-policy\/rba-board-minutes\/2012\/07082012.html\" target=\"_blank\">The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its last monetary policy decision<\/a> during which <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/785891-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-declares-soft-landing-in-china-focuses-on-europe\" target=\"_blank\">it seemed to declare a soft landing for China<\/a>. I took particular interest in the RBA&#8217;s assessment of the surprisingly strong Australian dollar (FXA). <\/p>\n<p>The RBA pointed to the strong demand for Australian government bonds as a key support for the Australian dollar&#8230; {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Just as in the U.S., government bond yields in Australia are at record lows and notably below panic lows from 2008 and 209.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13586\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13586\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120820_AustralianGovtBondYields.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120820_AustralianGovtBondYields-300x214.png\" alt=\"Australian Capital Market Yields - Government Bonds\" title=\"Australian Capital Market Yields - Government Bonds\" width=\"300\" height=\"214\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-13586\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120820_AustralianGovtBondYields-300x214.png 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120820_AustralianGovtBondYields.png 829w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13586\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Australian Capital Market Yields - Government Bonds<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/statistics\/tables\/#govt_finance\" target=\"_blank\">RBA International Market Interest Rates and Government Security Yields<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The ramp up in foreign ownership in Australian bonds has been significant. On August 6th, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2012\/08\/06\/australia-bonds-idUSL4E8IQ0RU20120806\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters quoted Barclays research with these data<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Offshore holdings of the A$238 billion Australian sovereign bonds on issue have ballooned to around 83.5 percent, up from 71 percent a year ago and around a third a decade ago&#8230;&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The RBA also pointed to the possibility that purchases from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are further strengthening the Australian dollar although this buying may be counter-balanced somewhat by Chinese selling {snip}<\/p>\n<p>On balance, the RBA demonstrates little alarm or concern for the health of the Australian economy, pointing to Europe as the key point of risk:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Although the RBA did partially blame the high exchange rate for earlier weakness in the non-resource sector of the economy, overall, the RBA minutes do not include any strong language suggesting any urgency about bringing the currency down. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13595\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13595\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120820_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120820_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"With stochastics greatly oversold, AUD\/USD should experience a healthy bounce from current levels\" title=\"With stochastics greatly oversold, AUD\/USD should experience a healthy bounce from current levels\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13595\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120820_AUDUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120820_AUDUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13595\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">With stochastics greatly oversold, AUD\/USD should experience a healthy bounce from current levels<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: FreeStockCharts.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 21, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/819081-rba-identifies-australian-dollar-s-support-from-foreign-demand-for-bonds\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net long Australian dollar at the time of writing<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 21, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its last monetary policy decision during which it seemed to declare a soft landing for China. I took particular interest in &#8230; <a title=\"RBA Identifies Australian Dollar&#8217;s Support from Foreign Demand for Bonds\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/27\/rba-identifies-australian-dollars-support-foreign-demand-bonds\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,266],"tags":[308,309,306,203,448],"class_list":["post-13585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-government","tag-audusd","tag-fxa","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia","tag-rydex-currencyshares-australian-dollar-trust-etf"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RBA Identifies Australian Dollar&#039;s Support from Foreign Demand for Bonds - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/27\/rba-identifies-australian-dollars-support-foreign-demand-bonds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RBA Identifies Australian Dollar&#039;s Support from Foreign Demand for Bonds - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 21, 2012. 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