{"id":13530,"date":"2012-08-30T22:10:50","date_gmt":"2012-08-31T05:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=13530"},"modified":"2012-08-30T22:10:50","modified_gmt":"2012-08-31T05:10:50","slug":"time-to-hedge-as-homebuilders-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/30\/time-to-hedge-as-homebuilders-surge\/","title":{"rendered":"Time to Hedge A Little As Homebuilders Surge to Multi-Year Milestones"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2010, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rallied sharply only to peak in parabolic fashion in April. That Fall, I reaffirmed my belief that housing would bounce along the bottom until 2013<\/a>. The next rally started from the August lows and ran until a peak in early May, 2011 that failed to surpass 2010’s high. As the next sell-off unfolded, fear grew that the housing market could sink into an even greater depression. The third time could be a charm. THIS year, XHB managed to survive the latest europanic-driven swoon with minimal losses. On Friday, the rally from last year’s lows continued with a fresh four-year high, essentially erasing all its post-recession losses.<\/p>\n


\n
\"This<\/a>
This year's XHB rally has been more sustained than the last two years<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Toll<\/a>
Toll Brothers has gone from post-recession lows to post-recession highs in less than a year<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"Meritage<\/a>
Meritage had been capped by its 2008 highs until this year's breakout<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Shorts<\/a>
Shorts have backed off TOL after surging ahead of May earnings<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: NASDAQ short interest<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Shorts could be taking heed to commentary like the one from Pulte Homes (PHM)…{snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

So, if shorts start showing a new respect for the nascent housing recovery, what about bond buyers? {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"10-year<\/a>
10-year yields have finally jumped off record lows<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"20-year<\/a>
20-year yields have finally jumped off record lows<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"TLT<\/a>
TLT plunges from record highs<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I also decided to sell calls against my shares in KBH. {snip}<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Full disclosure (at the time of writing): long KBH shares, short KBH calls, long TLT calls, long TBT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In 2010, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rallied sharply only to peak in parabolic fashion in April. That Fall, I reaffirmed my belief that housing would bounce along the bottom … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,35],"tags":[1593,283,146,147,1017,444,1016,545,443,280,37,36,383],"class_list":["post-13530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-housing","tag-housing","tag-ishares-barclays-20-year-treasury-bond","tag-kb-home","tag-kbh","tag-phm","tag-proshares-ultrashort-20-year-treasury","tag-pulte-homes","tag-spdr-sp-homebuilders-etf","tag-tbt","tag-tlt","tag-tol","tag-toll-brothers-inc","tag-xhb"],"yoast_head":"\nTime to Hedge A Little As Homebuilders Surge to Multi-Year Milestones - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/30\/time-to-hedge-as-homebuilders-surge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Time to Hedge A Little As Homebuilders Surge to Multi-Year Milestones - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2012. 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