{"id":13372,"date":"2012-08-23T19:47:05","date_gmt":"2012-08-24T02:47:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=13372"},"modified":"2012-08-23T19:47:05","modified_gmt":"2012-08-24T02:47:05","slug":"stronger-take-home-pay-productivity-puzzle-tug-uk-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/23\/stronger-take-home-pay-productivity-puzzle-tug-uk-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Stronger Take Home Pay and A Productivity Puzzle Tug on the U.K.&#8217;s Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 15, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/808271-stronger-take-home-pay-and-a-productivity-puzzle-tug-on-the-u-k-s-economy\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/Pages\/inflationreport\/ir1203.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">The Bank of England&#8217;s latest Inflation Report<\/a> (August 8th) included two items that I found particularly interesting:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Bank of England (BoE) expects the squeeze in take home pay in the United Kingdom to finally end. This squeeze was the UK&#8217;s longest in almost 100 years.<\/li>\n<li>Productivity is abnormally low for a recovery, and the BoE is struggling to explain it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A recovery in take home pay should lead to increased consumption. To date, the stubborn stagnation in income has accompanied a similar stagnation in consumption. Consumption remains near post-recession lows.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13446\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13446\" style=\"width: 460px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_RealHouseholdConsumptionAndIncome.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_RealHouseholdConsumptionAndIncome.png\" alt=\"Real household consumption and income\" title=\"Real household consumption and income\" width=\"470\" height=\"470\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13446\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_RealHouseholdConsumptionAndIncome.png 470w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_RealHouseholdConsumptionAndIncome-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_RealHouseholdConsumptionAndIncome-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13446\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Real household consumption and income<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/Documents\/inflationreport\/ir12aug.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Bank of England, Inflation Report, August, 2012<\/a> (p7)<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The prospect for a recovery in take home pay is a positive for an otherwise tepid outlook for GDP growth that includes a projection for a return to pre-recesion levels of output only in 2014. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13442\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13442\" style=\"width: 461px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_GDPProjection.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_GDPProjection.png\" alt=\"GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations and \u00a3375 billion asset purchases\" title=\"GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations and \u00a3375 billion asset purchases\" width=\"471\" height=\"434\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13442\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_GDPProjection.png 471w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120814_UK_GDPProjection-300x276.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 471px) 100vw, 471px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13442\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations and \u00a3375 billion asset purchases<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/Documents\/inflationreport\/ir12aug.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Bank of England, Inflation Report, August, 2012<\/a> (p6)<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The recovery in take home pay is arriving on the heels of &#8220;puzzlingly robust&#8221; employment growth:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13458\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13458\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120815_GBPUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120815_GBPUSD.png\" alt=\"The pound has very slowly drifted downward against the U.S. dollar over the last three years\" title=\"The pound has very slowly drifted downward against the U.S. dollar over the last three years\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13458\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120815_GBPUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120815_GBPUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13458\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The pound has very slowly drifted downward against the U.S. dollar over the last three years<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13459\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13459\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120815_GBPUSD-daily.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120815_GBPUSD-daily.png\" alt=\"GBP\/USD has bounced around in a wide trading range for three months\" title=\"GBP\/USD has bounced around in a wide trading range for three months\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13459\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120815_GBPUSD-daily.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120815_GBPUSD-daily-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13459\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GBP\/USD has bounced around in a wide trading range for three months<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Note that at some point, GBP\/USD will likely break resistance at the 200DMA and launch another rally toward the top of the extended range. Under this scenario, 1.60 becomes the first trading target.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 15, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/808271-stronger-take-home-pay-and-a-productivity-puzzle-tug-on-the-u-k-s-economy\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net long British pound (as of this post)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 15, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Bank of England&#8217;s latest Inflation Report (August 8th) included two items that I found particularly interesting: The Bank of England (BoE) expects the squeeze in take home pay in the &#8230; <a title=\"Stronger Take Home Pay and A Productivity Puzzle Tug on the U.K.&#8217;s Economy\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/23\/stronger-take-home-pay-productivity-puzzle-tug-uk-economy\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,794,20,237],"tags":[56,128,384,1021,970,1022,197],"class_list":["post-13372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-europe","category-forex","category-united-kingdom","tag-bank-of-england","tag-british-pound","tag-gbpusd","tag-income","tag-inflation-report","tag-productivity","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stronger Take Home Pay and A Productivity Puzzle Tug on the U.K.&#039;s Economy - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/23\/stronger-take-home-pay-productivity-puzzle-tug-uk-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stronger Take Home Pay and A Productivity Puzzle Tug on the U.K.&#039;s Economy - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 15, 2012. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) The Bank of England&#8217;s latest Inflation Report (August 8th) included two items that I found particularly interesting: The Bank of England (BoE) expects the squeeze in take home pay in the ... 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