{"id":13332,"date":"2012-08-08T01:21:58","date_gmt":"2012-08-08T08:21:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=13332"},"modified":"2012-08-08T01:21:58","modified_gmt":"2012-08-08T08:21:58","slug":"t2108-update-120807","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/08\/t2108-update-120807\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (August 7, 2012) – Critical Juncture: Overbought, 2012 Highs, and the Australian Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 76.4% (third day of FOURTH overbought period in six weeks)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 16.0
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Accumulate or initiate fresh bearish position<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):<\/p>\n

S&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe overbought rally continued for a third day as T2108 trickled up to 76 and the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. The index got within 8 points of retesting the May intraday high. The high of the day retested the May closing high.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 creeps its way into resistance<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This is about the time the S&P 500 has found a reason to cool off for a few days, and I have been looking for reasons to launch my T2108 rules to open new bearish positions. On Monday, overbought day #2, I finally found that reason in the form of an Australian dollar (FXA) fading intra-day. I bought a first tranche of puts in SSO. The S&P 500 followed with a very weak close, losing most gains. On Tuesday, I found more reason to get bearish and bought a second tranche of SSO puts as the Australian dollar faded most of the day. I tweeted the following sequence over the course of the day:<\/p>\n

“Bearish divergence on $AUDUSD vs $SPY. Rally not getting confirmed.”<\/p>\n

“Intraday bearish divergence btwn $AUDUSD and $SPY getting even stronger. Expecting $SPY selling into close heavier than yesterday. We’ll see”<\/p>\n

“$AUDUSD does it again. While $SPY did not hit a new low of the day, it did fade all gains from the open. VERY cautious on Wed open.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I wrote about caution on Wednesday’s open because I expected follow-through on Aussie weakness. At the time of writing, that is not panning out. Here is an intra-day chart of the trading on Tuesday that demonstrates the bearish divergence I observed. Also note how the S&P 500 gave up most of its gains in the wake of AUD\/USD weakness. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar provides a leading signal for the S&P 500 yet again<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I have written about the valuable relationship between AUD\/USD and the S&P 500 in several other pieces; for example, see “Another Key Bullish Divergence Between The Australian Dollar And The S&P 500<\/a>.” At some point, these correlations will not work or outright fail as conditions change. For now, I maintain close vigilance on an intra-day and daily level. The S&P 500’s challenge of key resistance levels also present a key test of this relationship with the Australian dollar. <\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\nClick chart for extended view with S&P 500 fully scaled vertically (updated at least once a week)
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS; long SSO puts; long VXX shares, calls, and puts; short VXX calls; short AUD\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 76.4% (third day of … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,135,62],"tags":[308,310,998,65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-13332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-correlations","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (August 7, 2012) - Critical Juncture: Overbought, 2012 Highs, and the Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/08\/t2108-update-120807\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (August 7, 2012) - Critical Juncture: Overbought, 2012 Highs, and the Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 76.4% (third day of ... 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