{"id":13115,"date":"2012-08-05T13:53:14","date_gmt":"2012-08-05T20:53:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=13115"},"modified":"2012-08-05T13:53:14","modified_gmt":"2012-08-05T20:53:14","slug":"apple-important-macro-calls-likely-post-earnings-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/05\/apple-important-macro-calls-likely-post-earnings-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Apple&#8217;s Important Macro and Forex Calls and Likely Post-Earnings Recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/759961-apple-s-important-macro-and-forex-calls-and-likely-post-earnings-recovery\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Like all companies with extensive international presence, Apple took a hit from the strong dollar (UUP)&#8230; {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Apple appears to expect continued strength in the U.S. dollar as the company projects a $400M hit to revenue (net of hedges) from the currency in the current quarter. These numbers are of course small potatoes for a company that earned $35B in revenue last quarter at a growth rate of 23% year-over-year. So, Apple&#8217;s general call on macro-economic conditions is more important:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Putting aside the implication that Apple&#8217;s management claims it has no unique insight into global economic conditions, I think the choice of words is insightful. At the risk of over-interpretation, I think a prediction that conditions will not improve communicates an expectation (and hope) that conditions will stabilize. Calling out resource-based countries points to weak demand for commodities which in turn suggests little to no improvement in China. I have marveled at the strength in the Australian dollar&#8217;s bounce from June lows against the U.S. dollar (FXA) and have assumed that carry trades chasing yield are moving the currency. A stabilization in economic conditions can also explain the strong bounce.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13101\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13101\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120727_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120727_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar breaks out\" title=\"The Australian dollar breaks out\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13101\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120727_AUDUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120727_AUDUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13101\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar breaks out<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The weakness in Europe did not break down as I would have expected. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>All things considered given the macro calls, I have to assume that the small setback in Apple&#8217;s stock represents a buying opportunity. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13123\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13123\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120727_AAPL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120727_AAPL.png\" alt=\"Apple&#039;s post-earnings recovery appears to be in motion\" title=\"Apple&#039;s post-earnings recovery appears to be in motion\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13123\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120727_AAPL.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120727_AAPL-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13123\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Apple&#039;s post-earnings recovery appears to be in motion<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Apple&#8217;s history of recoveries from post-earnings sell-offs is consistent. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13125\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13125\" style=\"width: 478px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120728_ApplePostEarningsRecoveriesSince2007.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120728_ApplePostEarningsRecoveriesSince2007.png\" alt=\"Apple&#039;s Post-Earnings Recoveries Since 2007\" title=\"Apple&#039;s Post-Earnings Recoveries Since 2007\" width=\"488\" height=\"332\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13125\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120728_ApplePostEarningsRecoveriesSince2007.png 488w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120728_ApplePostEarningsRecoveriesSince2007-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13125\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Apple&#039;s Post-Earnings Recoveries Since 2007<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Earnings dates from briefing.com, price data from Yahoo!Finance<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}&#8230; it seems there is about a 50\/50 chance Apple will experience a short versus a long post-earnings recovery this quarter&#8230;but it WILL happen assuming history continues to matter here.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/759961-apple-s-important-macro-and-forex-calls-and-likely-post-earnings-recovery\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Like all companies with extensive international presence, Apple took a hit from the strong dollar (UUP)&#8230; {snip} Apple appears to expect continued strength in the U.S. dollar as the company &#8230; <a title=\"Apple&#8217;s Important Macro and Forex Calls and Likely Post-Earnings Recovery\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/05\/apple-important-macro-calls-likely-post-earnings-recovery\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,4,794,219,21],"tags":[250,534,308,310,1591],"class_list":["post-13115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-china","category-europe","category-high-tech","category-u-s-dollar","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Apple&#039;s Important Macro and Forex Calls and Likely Post-Earnings Recovery - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/05\/apple-important-macro-calls-likely-post-earnings-recovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Apple&#039;s Important Macro and Forex Calls and Likely Post-Earnings Recovery - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. 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