{"id":13026,"date":"2012-08-23T19:51:35","date_gmt":"2012-08-24T02:51:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=13026"},"modified":"2012-08-23T19:51:35","modified_gmt":"2012-08-24T02:51:35","slug":"high-valuation-wwgrainger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/23\/high-valuation-wwgrainger\/","title":{"rendered":"High Valuation Hinders W.W. Grainger&#8217;s After Historic Post-Earnings Response"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/813312-high-valuation-hinders-w-w-grainger-after-historic-post-earnings-response\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Almost two months ago, <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/665231-rich-valuations-mean-fastenal-has-likely-peaked-short-term-buy-on-lower-prices#comments_header\" target=\"_blank\">I wrote about Fastenal<\/a> (FAST), an industrial and construction supplier, describing the stock as expensive but worth buying at lower prices. Within a month, FAST jumped over 10% before its rally ended at resistance. In the same article, I compared FAST to W.W. Grainger (GWW), a parts distributor, and pointed out how GWW was falling in sympathy. Since then, I have kept an eye on both stocks. I took particular interest after GWW soared an uncharacteristic 11% after reporting earnings on the morning of July 18th.<\/p>\n<p>I had to reach all the way back to February 3, 1999 to find a larger, one-day, post-earnings response (14%). The last double-digit response in either direction was a 14% drop on July 17, 2006.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13478\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13478\" style=\"width: 429px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120816_GWWPostEarnings.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120816_GWWPostEarnings.png\" alt=\"Distribution of One-Day Price Changes After GWW Reports Earnings (Feb, 1999 to July, 2012)\" title=\"Distribution of One-Day Price Changes After GWW Reports Earnings (Feb, 1999 to July, 2012)\" width=\"439\" height=\"376\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13478\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120816_GWWPostEarnings.png 439w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120816_GWWPostEarnings-300x256.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 439px) 100vw, 439px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13478\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Distribution of One-Day Price Changes After GWW Reports Earnings (Feb, 1999 to July, 2012)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Sources: Earnings dates from briefing.com, price data from Yahoo!Finance<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_13498\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13498\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120816_GWW.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120816_GWW.png\" alt=\"GWW soars at a historic rate since July earnings but has not made more progress since then\" title=\"GWW soars at a historic rate since July earnings but has not made more progress since then\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13498\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120816_GWW.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/120816_GWW-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-13498\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GWW soars at a historic rate since July earnings but has not made more progress since then<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Gains from these levels are likely not going to be easy. With a 12-month trailing P\/E of 21, GWW is already well above <a href=\"http:\/\/investing.money.msn.com\/investments\/key-ratios?symbol=GWW&#038;page=TenYearSummary\" target=\"_blank\">its annual average over the past 9-10 years<\/a>. The story is the same for price-to-sales and price-to-book. <\/p>\n<p>Here are some key notes I took from the earnings call using <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/729441-w-w-grainger-management-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single\" target=\"_blank\">Seeking Alpha transcripts<\/a>. (The company did not host a Q&#038;A session).<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/813312-high-valuation-hinders-w-w-grainger-after-historic-post-earnings-response\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two months ago, I wrote about Fastenal (FAST), an industrial and construction supplier, describing the stock as expensive but worth buying at lower prices. Within a month, FAST jumped over &#8230; <a title=\"High Valuation Hinders W.W. Grainger&#8217;s After Historic Post-Earnings Response\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/08\/23\/high-valuation-wwgrainger\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,43],"tags":[215,214,980,979],"class_list":["post-13026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-industrial-sector","tag-fast","tag-fastenal","tag-gww","tag-w-w-grainger"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>High Valuation Hinders W.W. 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