{"id":12885,"date":"2012-07-18T22:19:05","date_gmt":"2012-07-19T02:19:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=12885"},"modified":"2012-07-18T22:21:38","modified_gmt":"2012-07-19T02:21:38","slug":"t2108-update-120718","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/07\/18\/t2108-update-120718\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (July 18, 2012) – On the Edge of An Extended Overbought Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 76.3% (4th overbought day)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 16.2 (essentially matches lowest level in over 2 months)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Add fresh bearish trade or accumulate bearish position one last time – otherwise hold.
\nReference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe S&P 500 is stubbornly crawling upward. Since bouncing off its 50DMA, the S&P 500 is up three out of the last four days. The index has closed above resistance at the 2011 highs and is retesting the July highs. A close above this resistance sets the stage for an extended overbought rally, the long anticipated follow-through to the blockbuster overbought rally that launched 2012. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 looks set for a breakout<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108 is equal to 76.3%, the fourth overbought day in a row and the historical median duration of overbought periods (the average is 9.2 days). I decided to add to my SSO puts one last time given my earlier rule to only add to the position once the S&P 500 reaches critical resistance. I will consider this trade a bust on a breakout, and, just as in March, I will switch to a different overbought bullish strategy that emphasizes buying (intraday) dips and flipping fast.<\/p>\n

Finally, the Australian dollar continues to confirm the rally in the S&P 500. It too broke out, reaching 2 1\/2 month highs against the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar breaks out<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While I am extremely skeptical of the sustainability of gains for the Australian dollar, I will be forced to drop my bearish bias if the currency maintains follow-through from here. I am now more interested than ever in the correlation between the S&P 500 and the Australian dollar, especially since Australia’s biggest customer, China, is supposed to be experiencing a significant slowdown in growth.<\/p>\n

For more on details on the correlations between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500 see “Correlations Are Broken But Australian Dollar Still Leads The S&P 500<\/a>” and\/or “How Divergences Between The Australian Dollar And The S&P 500 Can Signal Trades<\/a>.”<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\nClick chart for extended view with S&P 500 fully scaled vertically (updated at least once a week)
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS; long VXX shares; short VXX call spreads; long VXX puts, long SSO puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 76.3% (4th overbought day) … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-12885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (July 18, 2012) - On the Edge of An Extended Overbought Rally - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/07\/18\/t2108-update-120718\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (July 18, 2012) - On the Edge of An Extended Overbought Rally - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 76.3% (4th overbought day) ... 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