{"id":12837,"date":"2012-07-16T09:03:58","date_gmt":"2012-07-16T13:03:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=12837"},"modified":"2012-07-16T13:09:50","modified_gmt":"2012-07-16T17:09:50","slug":"the-japanese-yen-reasserts-itself","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/07\/16\/the-japanese-yen-reasserts-itself\/","title":{"rendered":"The Japanese Yen Is Reasserting Itself"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar&#8217;s jagged rally from last year&#8217;s lows has finally brought it back to its &#8220;QE2 reference price.&#8221; At the same time, a carry trade seems to be lifting the Australian dollar in &#8220;risk-on&#8221; fashion. In the background, the Japanese yen is slowly but surely reasserting itself as the strongest of the major currencies in direct contradiction to the trend in the Australian dollar. In particular, the yen has now reasserted itself against the U.S. dollar with a break below the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs):<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12838\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12838\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120716_USDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120716_USDJPY.png\" alt=\"USD\/JPY cracks support and ends what looked like a breakout\" title=\"USD\/JPY cracks support and ends what looked like a breakout\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12838\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120716_USDJPY.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120716_USDJPY-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12838\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">USD\/JPY cracks support and ends what looked like a breakout<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The final test will be whether the yen can put an official end to the carry trade in the Australian dollar which seems to mainly victimize the euro (and franc of course) and the British pound:<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12840\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12840\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120716_AUDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120716_AUDJPY.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar bounced throughout June against the yen but has stabilized in July\" title=\"The Australian dollar bounced throughout June against the yen but has stabilized in July\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12840\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120716_AUDJPY.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/120716_AUDJPY-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12840\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar bounced throughout June against the yen but has stabilized in July<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>What this means for U.S. stocks remains unclear. For now, I am assuming <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/704511-australian-dollar-confirms-stock-rally-as-it-re-emerges-as-a-leading-risk-on-currency\" target=\"_blank\">the strong correlation between the S&#038;P 500 and the Australian dollar<\/a> will remain intact no matter what is happening with the Japanese yen. Also, I am staying long small positions in AUD\/JPY and USD\/JPY while trading in and out of EUR\/JPY and GBP\/JPY opportunistically with a bias toward long yen.<\/p>\n<p>(As of writing, poor U.S. retail sales numbers are taking a huge bite out the U.S. dollar across the board and further pushing USD\/JPY lower. I am using this as an opportunity to initiate <strong>small<\/strong> fresh dollar-long positions, <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/720421-changing-back-to-a-bearish-strategy-on-the-british-pound\" target=\"_blank\">especially against the British pound<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net short Japanese yen, net short Australian dollar, long SDS. (Building fresh net dollar-long positions)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar&#8217;s jagged rally from last year&#8217;s lows has finally brought it back to its &#8220;QE2 reference price.&#8221; At the same time, a carry trade seems to be lifting the Australian dollar in &#8220;risk-on&#8221; fashion. In the background, the Japanese yen is slowly but surely reasserting itself as the strongest of the major currencies &#8230; <a title=\"The Japanese Yen Is Reasserting Itself\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/07\/16\/the-japanese-yen-reasserts-itself\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,483,20,62,21],"tags":[772,137,138,1597,1591,454],"class_list":["post-12837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-breakdown","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-audjpy","tag-carry-trade","tag-japanese-yen","tag-technical-analysis","tag-u-s-dollar","tag-usdjpy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Japanese Yen Is Reasserting Itself - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/07\/16\/the-japanese-yen-reasserts-itself\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Japanese Yen Is Reasserting Itself - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S. dollar&#8217;s jagged rally from last year&#8217;s lows has finally brought it back to its &#8220;QE2 reference price.&#8221; At the same time, a carry trade seems to be lifting the Australian dollar in &#8220;risk-on&#8221; fashion. In the background, the Japanese yen is slowly but surely reasserting itself as the strongest of the major currencies ... 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