{"id":12520,"date":"2012-06-25T03:49:38","date_gmt":"2012-06-25T07:49:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=12520"},"modified":"2012-06-25T03:49:38","modified_gmt":"2012-06-25T07:49:38","slug":"chart-review-a-cautious-eye-on-cyclicals-materials-and-industrials","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/25\/chart-review-a-cautious-eye-on-cyclicals-materials-and-industrials\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Review: A Cautious Eye on Cyclicals &#8211; Materials and Industrials"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cyclical stocks continue to worry me even as <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/22\/t2108-update-120622\/\" target=\"_blank\">the S&#038;P 500 treads water<\/a>. Charts across a wide swath of related stocks show inabilities to break critical resistance and in some cases, are outright breaking down. Here are several representative charts along with brief commentary.<\/p>\n<p>The Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) both failed at 50-day moving averages (DMAs) last week. XLB is below its 200DMA again and is back in very bearish territory.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12521\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12521\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_XLI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_XLI.png\" alt=\"XLI fails sharply at its 50DMA\" title=\"XLI fails sharply at its 50DMA\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12521\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_XLI.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_XLI-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12521\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">XLI fails sharply at its 50DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12522\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12522\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_XLB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_XLB.png\" alt=\"XLB fails sharply at its 50DMA and returns to very bearish territory under the 200DMA\" title=\"XLB fails sharply at its 50DMA and returns to very bearish territory under the 200DMA\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12522\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_XLB.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_XLB-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12522\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">XLB fails sharply at its 50DMA and returns to very bearish territory under the 200DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) failed to benefit much from the stock market&#8217;s raly through last Thursday&#8217;s sell-off. It remains negative for the year and looks ready for a fresh round of selling.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12523\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12523\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_CAT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_CAT.png\" alt=\"Caterpillar continues to point toward lower prices\" title=\"Caterpillar continues to point toward lower prices\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12523\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_CAT.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_CAT-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12523\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Caterpillar continues to point toward lower prices<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>CAT cousin Terex (TEX) is below its 200DMA again. The declining 50DMA will likely form an ever tighter ceiling.<br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12527\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12527\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_TEX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_TEX.png\" alt=\"Terex still has support from June&#039;s low, but not likely to last much longer\" title=\"Terex still has support from June&#039;s low, but not likely to last much longer without a strong, positive catalyst\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12527\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_TEX.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_TEX-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12527\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Terex still has support from June&#039;s low, but not likely to last much longer<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Many steel stocks have cratered again in 2012. The Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX) already retested 2011 lows and failed to gain enough momentum to pull away from a new breakdown.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12528\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12528\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_SLX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_SLX.png\" alt=\" Market Vectors Steel ETF hit a post-recession peak in spring 2011 and has been downhill ever since\" title=\" Market Vectors Steel ETF hit a post-recession peak in spring 2011 and has been downhill ever since\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12528\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_SLX.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_SLX-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12528\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"> Market Vectors Steel ETF hit a post-recession peak in spring 2011 and has been downhill ever since<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The recent rally in Siemens AG (SI) off 2012 lows stalled right under its 50DMA. The stock is now trading back at critical support that has held since 2010.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12524\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12524\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_SI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_SI.png\" alt=\"Siemens sold off to rest right on critical support\" title=\"Siemens sold off to rest right on critical support\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_SI.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_SI-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12524\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Siemens sold off to rest right on critical support<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Fastenal Company (FAST) and fellow parts supplier W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) continue the malaise I pointed out in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/665231-rich-valuations-mean-fastenal-has-likely-peaked-short-term-buy-on-lower-prices\" target=\"_blank\">Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>FAST is right back to critical support from the lows of the year. It seems almost sure to continue it sell-off.<br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12525\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12525\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_FAST.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_FAST.png\" alt=\"FAST prints a &#039;falling three methods&#039; pattern that signals continuation of the prevailing trend - down\" title=\"FAST prints a &#039;falling three methods&#039; pattern that signals continuation of the prevailing trend - down\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_FAST.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_FAST-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12525\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">FAST prints a &#039;falling three methods&#039; pattern that signals continuation of the prevailing trend - down<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Although GWW&#8217;s 200DMA continues to rise, the stock also continues to fail at that resistance level.<br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12526\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12526\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_GWW.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_GWW.png\" alt=\"GWW keeps failing to break resistance\" title=\"GWW keeps failing to break resistance\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12526\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_GWW.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_GWW-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12526\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GWW keeps failing to break resistance<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Flowserve (FLS) remains a relative bright spot although its stock has trended down since hitting a 2012 peak in February. FLS is sstruggling to break free of a declining 50DMA. Another break below the 200DMA will likely ignite a fresh sell-off.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12529\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12529\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_FLS.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_FLS.png\" alt=\"Flowserve struggles to break free of a declining 50DMA\" title=\"Flowserve struggles to break free of a declining 50DMA\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12529\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_FLS.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120622_FLS-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12529\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Flowserve struggles to break free of a declining 50DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Whether trading off recent highs or recent lows, all these stocks are warning of future economic weakness. I strongly suspect July will deliver some very ominous earnings warnings that will reinforce the poor technical patterns developing here. This group, and many others, is in high need of a very positive catalyst&#8230;and soon.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long CAT; long SI calls; long TEX puts; long SDS and SSO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cyclical stocks continue to worry me even as the S&#038;P 500 treads water. Charts across a wide swath of related stocks show inabilities to break critical resistance and in some cases, are outright breaking down. Here are several representative charts along with brief commentary. The Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) and the Industrial Select Sector &#8230; <a title=\"Chart Review: A Cautious Eye on Cyclicals &#8211; Materials and Industrials\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/25\/chart-review-a-cautious-eye-on-cyclicals-materials-and-industrials\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,512,44,511,62],"tags":[64,63,596,595,986,987,984,988,985,389],"class_list":["post-12520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-industrial-sector","category-resistance","category-steel","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-flowserve","tag-fls","tag-industrial-select-sector-spdr","tag-market-vectors-steel-etf","tag-materials-select-sector-spdr","tag-slx","tag-xlb","tag-xli"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chart Review: A Cautious Eye on Cyclicals - Materials and Industrials - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/25\/chart-review-a-cautious-eye-on-cyclicals-materials-and-industrials\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chart Review: A Cautious Eye on Cyclicals - Materials and Industrials - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cyclical stocks continue to worry me even as the S&#038;P 500 treads water. 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