{"id":12508,"date":"2012-06-22T22:25:57","date_gmt":"2012-06-23T02:25:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=12508"},"modified":"2012-06-22T22:27:26","modified_gmt":"2012-06-23T02:27:26","slug":"t2108-update-120622","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/22\/t2108-update-120622\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (June 22, 2012) – Stop and Go Traffic"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 39.6%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 18.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold with bearish hedges
\nReference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nWhen the volatility index becomes itself very volatile, you know it is time to take a pause, step back, and view the market from a larger angle. Friday’s 9.% plunge in the VIX erased almost 2\/3 of the previous day’s gains. Suddenly, the volatility index looks a LOT less dangerous than it did when I wrote the last T2108 Update<\/a>. <\/p>\n

I would describe the current churn as “stop and go traffic.” Just when I think the market is heading somewhere, I have to apply the brakes and reassess. There are two fundamental truths in the S&P 500 chart: (1) the downtrend from the 52-week highs remains in place, and (2) the uptrend from the June lows, as supported by the 200DMA, also remains intact. This is a formula for range-bound trading. Only a decisive break in either direction will generate cleaner and clearer trading opportunities.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 remains well-contained within trend lines and important levels from 2011<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108 is currently trading at a higher range, bouncing between 30-50% over the last six trading days. This is essentially limbo: T2108 cannot communicate any new information bouncing around in here.<\/p>\n

Reviewing the market from a larger angle, it seems clear that I need to simplify the trading strategy…starting with reducing it. Next, I will focus almost exclusively on major indices. Individual stocks will only make sense AFTER some major news announcement. I am particularly mindful that earnings season is again around the corner and the possibilities loom for major earnings warnings.<\/p>\n

One stock that continues to benefit from good news flow is First Solar (FSLR). It continues to trend upward and for a brief moment finally punched through its 50DMA. The fade to close the day placed the stock directly under this resistance (no, you cannot make this stuff up!). I sold call options into today’s 9.2% jump. FSLR is now 34.9% off its all-time lows (of course, it is still a complete disaster overall).<\/p>\n


\n
\"FSLR<\/a>
FSLR continues to fight its way upward. This time, stopping at stiff resistance from the 50DMA.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Today’s fresh plunge pushed VXX toward its all-time lows; perhaps a triple bottom is not in the cards after all! VXX gave up its entire 11.1% gain from Thursday. The recent trading in VXX has indicated to me that there could be good profit in trading puts against shares. I have already completed two rounds of successful trades in weekly puts. The idea here is to hold a small amount of shares in the case of a large pop – I am now assuming the market is at higher risk of selling off sharply at any time – but in general, aggressively press bets that VXX is returning to its long-term, secular decline. This is an experiment, and I will need to end it if I have to trade excessively or too aggressively to maintain profitability.<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS, SSO; long VXX calls, puts, and shares; long FSLR<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 39.6% VIX Status: 18.1 … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,135,62,982],"tags":[6,7,155,65,226,1597,303,120],"class_list":["post-12508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-options","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-first-solar","tag-fslr","tag-options-trading","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix","tag-vxx"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (June 22, 2012) - Stop and Go Traffic - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/22\/t2108-update-120622\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (June 22, 2012) - Stop and Go Traffic - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 39.6% VIX Status: 18.1 ... 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