{"id":12384,"date":"2012-06-21T04:15:09","date_gmt":"2012-06-21T08:15:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=12384"},"modified":"2012-06-21T04:15:16","modified_gmt":"2012-06-21T08:15:16","slug":"fastenal-peaked-buy-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/21\/fastenal-peaked-buy-lower\/","title":{"rendered":"Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 18, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/665231-rich-valuations-mean-fastenal-has-likely-peaked-short-term-buy-on-lower-prices\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On June 5, 2012, Fastenal (FAST) dropped 9.8% in response to its May sales report. This sharply negative reaction got my attention because Fastenal&#8217;s industrial and construction supplies business should be highly sensitive to the health of the overall economy&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip} FAST is the kind of stock you want to own in a long-term portfolio. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12385\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12385\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-monthly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-monthly.png\" alt=\"FAST has a very enviable multi-decade performance\" title=\"FAST has a very enviable multi-decade performance\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12385\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-monthly.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-monthly-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12385\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">FAST has a very enviable multi-decade performance<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} FAST is now down 27.5% from its all-time high and is down 9.2% for the year.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12386\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12386\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST.png\" alt=\"FAST is breaking down in the short-term\" title=\"FAST is breaking down in the short-term\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12386\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12386\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">FAST is breaking down in the short-term<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>It turns out that the market has reacted poorly to FAST&#8217;s last three reports including an earnings report. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12396\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12396\" style=\"width: 496px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-SalesReportResponse.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-SalesReportResponse.png\" alt=\"Price Response to Fastenal&#039;s Sales Reports Since January, 2011\" title=\"Price Response to Fastenal&#039;s Sales Reports Since January, 2011\" width=\"506\" height=\"480\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12396\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-SalesReportResponse.png 506w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-SalesReportResponse-300x284.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 506px) 100vw, 506px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12396\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Price Response to Fastenal&#039;s Sales Reports Since January, 2011<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <a href=\"http:\/\/investor.fastenal.com\/releases.cfm?Year=&#038;ReleasesType=&#038;PageNum=1\" target=\"_blank\">Report dates from Fastenal web site<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q\/hp?s=FAST+Historical+Prices\" target=\"_blank\">stock prices from Yahoo!Finance<\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Moreover, fellow parts supplier W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) has fallen in sympathy with FAST. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12387\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12387\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_GWW.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_GWW.png\" alt=\"W.W. Grainger fails to sustain a comeback from its sympathetic trade with FAST&#039;s malaise\" title=\"W.W. Grainger fails to sustain a comeback from its sympathetic trade with FAST&#039;s malaise\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12387\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_GWW.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_GWW-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12387\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">W.W. Grainger fails to sustain a comeback from its sympathetic trade with FAST&#039;s malaise<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>FAST&#8217;s valuation is also very high, especially for a stock with declining sales growth trends. {snip} The red horizontal lines in the charts below represent current valuations.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12389\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12389\" style=\"width: 512px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-valuation.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-valuation.png\" alt=\"Comparison of FAST&#039;s current valuation with 10-year annual averages\" title=\"Comparison of FAST&#039;s current valuation with 10-year annual averages\" width=\"522\" height=\"702\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12389\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-valuation.png 522w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-valuation-223x300.png 223w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 522px) 100vw, 522px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12389\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Comparison of FAST&#039;s current valuation with 10-year annual averages<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/investing.money.msn.com\/investments\/key-ratios?symbol=fast&#038;page=TenYearSummary\" target=\"_blank\">MSN Money Ten-Year Summary for FAST<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>FAST&#8217;s drop has yet to attract the attention of short sellers. In fact, shorts have been pulling away from FAST since last October. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12392\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12392\" style=\"width: 527px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-SharesShort.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-SharesShort.png\" alt=\"Shorts continue to flee from FAST\" title=\"Shorts continue to flee from FAST\" width=\"537\" height=\"384\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12392\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-SharesShort.png 537w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/120615_FAST-SharesShort-300x214.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 537px) 100vw, 537px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12392\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shorts continue to flee from FAST<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/symbol\/fast\/short-interest#ixzz1y7pn4sFM\" target=\"_blank\">NASDAQ short interest for FAST<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>So where does this all put FAST? In the short-term, I think it is very likely to lose more value as valuations get shaved closer to historical norms. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 18, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/665231-rich-valuations-mean-fastenal-has-likely-peaked-short-term-buy-on-lower-prices\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 18, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On June 5, 2012, Fastenal (FAST) dropped 9.8% in response to its May sales report. This sharply negative reaction got my attention because Fastenal&#8217;s industrial and construction supplies business should be &#8230; <a title=\"Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/21\/fastenal-peaked-buy-lower\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,43,62],"tags":[215,214,980,1597,979],"class_list":["post-12384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-industrial-sector","category-technical-analysis","tag-fast","tag-fastenal","tag-gww","tag-technical-analysis","tag-w-w-grainger"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/21\/fastenal-peaked-buy-lower\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 18, 2012. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) On June 5, 2012, Fastenal (FAST) dropped 9.8% in response to its May sales report. This sharply negative reaction got my attention because Fastenal&#8217;s industrial and construction supplies business should be ... 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