{"id":122,"date":"2009-09-21T11:27:12","date_gmt":"2009-09-21T16:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=122"},"modified":"2009-09-21T11:44:50","modified_gmt":"2009-09-21T16:44:50","slug":"strangle-options-play-in-wynn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/09\/21\/strangle-options-play-in-wynn\/","title":{"rendered":"Strangle Options Play in WYNN"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Casino stocks have soared since the July market lows. September in particular has featured some near parabolic moves as shorts get squeezed and risk-seeking behavior has accelerated.<\/p>\n<p>Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) has caught my attention the past two months because its large swings in stock price have made option strangles quite profitable. In a strangle, a trader opens a position in calls and puts at different strikes (for the same month in this case). A typical position will utilize out-of-the-money calls and puts in anticipation of a large move by expiration. WYNN has experienced large monthly swings all year. The chart below shows the monthly price range in WYNN&#8217;s stock between option expirations. For example, the line for September shows that from the close of August expiration to the close for September expiration, WYNN dropped as much as 10%, increased as much as 30%, and ended up with a 21% change.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_123\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-123\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/090921_WYNNMonthlyPriceRange.jpg\" alt=\"WYNN has experienced large monthly price swings\" title=\"090921_WYNNMonthlyPriceRange\" width=\"525\" height=\"384\" class=\"size-full wp-image-123\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/090921_WYNNMonthlyPriceRange.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/090921_WYNNMonthlyPriceRange-300x219.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-123\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">WYNN has experienced large monthly price swings<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>For October expiration, I am scaling into the Oct 80 calls and Oct 60 puts. Each strike is well within the monthly ranges shown above. From the current print at $70.50, a 12% move takes WYNN to the Oct 80 strike, and a 16% drop takes WYNN to the Oct 60 strike. If historical patterns hold up, I thus expect at worst to break even. If WYNN experiences a surge (in either direction) within the next two weeks, I expect the strangle to be very profitable as the value of the position overcomes rapid time decay.<\/p>\n<p>I am choosing a strangle again because, although I expect a significant market correction sometime this Fall, the absence of such a correction will likely send speculative, highly shorted stocks like WYNN hurtling ever higher. (one of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/story\/10601075\/1\/kass-six-ways-to-right-your-wrongs.html\">Doug Kass&#8217;s strategies for dealing with incorrect tactical trades<\/a> is to buy out-of-the-money options). Here are some catalysts that could get WYNN swinging far and wide in the coming four weeks:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/32947682\/site\/14081545\/for\/cnbc\/\">China easing gambling restrictions in Macau<\/a> and expectations for record takes in October.<\/li>\n<li>Conversely, the above optimistic expectations fail to materialize and\/or China suddenly reverses course in its policies.<\/li>\n<li>Continued excitement over WYNN&#8217;s coming Macau IPO as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/32952405\/site\/14081545\">the company recently increased the size of the offering<\/a>&#8230;and, of course, the potential bust if sellers rush to take profits quickly.<\/li>\n<li>News regarding consumer discretionary spending and savings levels.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>These catalysts alone have a lot of explosive potential. The general stock market throws one more firecracker into the pot. If this trade is successful for a third month in a row, I may make it a regular staple of my trading as long as such strong catalysts exist for WYNN.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long puts and calls in WYNN<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Casino stocks have soared since the July market lows. September in particular has featured some near parabolic moves as shorts get squeezed and risk-seeking behavior has accelerated. Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) has caught my attention the past two months because its large swings in stock price have made option strangles quite profitable. In a strangle, &#8230; <a title=\"Strangle Options Play in WYNN\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/09\/21\/strangle-options-play-in-wynn\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[33,110,113,112,111,1592,68,114,109,108],"class_list":["post-122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-calls","tag-casino","tag-china-gambling-policy","tag-gambling-stocks","tag-macau","tag-options","tag-puts","tag-strangle","tag-wynn","tag-wynn-resorts-ltd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strangle Options Play in WYNN - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/09\/21\/strangle-options-play-in-wynn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Strangle Options Play in WYNN - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Casino stocks have soared since the July market lows. September in particular has featured some near parabolic moves as shorts get squeezed and risk-seeking behavior has accelerated. Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) has caught my attention the past two months because its large swings in stock price have made option strangles quite profitable. In a strangle, ... 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