{"id":12016,"date":"2012-06-01T01:42:07","date_gmt":"2012-06-01T05:42:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=12016"},"modified":"2012-06-01T01:56:49","modified_gmt":"2012-06-01T05:56:49","slug":"t2108-update-120531","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/01\/t2108-update-120531\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (May 31, 2012) – Still Flirting With Oversold"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 24.4% (Last oversold period ends at 4 days)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 24.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold, make sure at least one hedge remains active (click here<\/a> for a trading summary posted on twitter)
\nReference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nT2108 rose a little from 23.2% to 24.4%. The VIX, the volatility index, bounced perfectly away from its 200DMA resistance, ending the day flat. The S&P 500 lost as much as 1% before perfectly bouncing off the psychologically important 1300 level. I thought the lows likely marked a flip to oversold T2108 levels, until I looked at the intra-day action. Volume surged into the close as selling dominated the last 30 minutes. The intra-day chart shows how buying accelerated into 3:30pm and just as fast sellers took the index right back down.<\/p>\n


\n
\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500 sells off strongly into the close<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Yahoo!Finance<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

That selling tells me there is unfinished business to the downside – like a retest of the 200DMA around 1284 on the S&P 500. At the rate things are going that retest should happen with T2108 tripping oversold (and the VIX breaking through its 200DMA resistance!). <\/p>\n

Note that the 6.2% drop in May for the S&P 500 is its fourth worst May performance since 1950. May, 2010 was one of the top three! On the other hand, TLT, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT), gained 8.8% on the month. It is at its highest level ever, surpassing even the levels from the financial panic in 2008\/2009. This speaks volumes about the fear in the market, but it also helps to stretch the rubber band even further in support of an eventual sharp rebound.<\/p>\n


\n
\"U.S.<\/a>
U.S. government debt is as popular as ever<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, in trading, I just missed a lowball offer on SSO calls near the lows of the day. I was hoping to have a play in hand in case we get the legendary first of the month rally on June 1st. I sold my VXX calls.<\/p>\n

(Note – as of May 11, 2012, I am still trying to figure out how to make the S&P 500 overlay work better).<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 24.4% (Last oversold period … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,135,62],"tags":[283,65,226,1597,280,303],"class_list":["post-12016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-ishares-barclays-20-year-treasury-bond","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-tlt","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (May 31, 2012) - Still Flirting With Oversold - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/06\/01\/t2108-update-120531\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (May 31, 2012) - Still Flirting With Oversold - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 24.4% (Last oversold period ... 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