{"id":11674,"date":"2012-05-23T20:59:49","date_gmt":"2012-05-24T00:59:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=11674"},"modified":"2012-05-23T20:59:49","modified_gmt":"2012-05-24T00:59:49","slug":"bhp-warning-commodity-crash-portfolio-back-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/05\/23\/bhp-warning-commodity-crash-portfolio-back-in-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"BHP&#8217;s Price Warning Brings the Commodity Crash Playbook Back In Focus"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/603191-bhp-s-price-warning-brings-the-commodity-crash-playbook-back-in-focus\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>BHP Billiton (BHP) Chairman Jacques Nasser raised eyebrows in a discussion with reporters on Wednesday, May 16th when <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2012\/05\/16\/us-bhpbilliton-markets-idUSBRE84F05H20120516\" target=\"_blank\">he indicated that commodity prices are likely to keep falling for now<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The tail winds of high commodity prices have contributed to record growth in the sector. Now we have a period where those tail winds are moderating and we expect further easing over time&#8230;&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Nasser also indicated that BHP would not follow-through with plans to spend $80B over five years expanding its various mining businesses. <\/p>\n<p>These statements immediately brought back into focus <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/278697-profiting-from-physical-assets-in-a-resource-constrained-world-rules-and-picks\" target=\"_blank\">my commodity crash playbook<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Last August, Joy Global (JOYG) talked bullishly about the demand for its equipment because of the need to expand and develop mines to meet the growing demands of China and other emerging markets (see &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/291133-despite-bullish-outlook-from-joy-global-the-commodity-crash-playbook-stays-active\" target=\"_blank\">Despite Bullish Outlook from Joy Global, the &#8216;Commodity Crash&#8217; Playbook Stays Active<\/a>&#8220;). {snip} JOYG is now retesting 2011&#8217;s low. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11776\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11776\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120518_JOYG.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120518_JOYG.png\" alt=\"JOYG appears to be completing a major topping pattern\" title=\"JOYG appears to be completing a major topping pattern\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11776\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120518_JOYG.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120518_JOYG-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11776\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">JOYG appears to be completing a major topping pattern<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/516961-2012-has-delivered-some-attractive-bargains-in-commodities\" target=\"_blank\">I recently bought BHP shares for the first time ever as the stock approached its QE2 reference price<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11819\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11819\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120518_BHP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120518_BHP.png\" alt=\"BHP is sinking fast\" title=\"BHP is sinking fast\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11819\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120518_BHP.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120518_BHP-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11819\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BHP is sinking fast<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"www.freestockcharts.com\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Seeing charts like JOYG and BHP give me serious pause. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Many commentators and analysts exist who have called for the collapse of China&#8217;s economy over the last several years. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/603191-bhp-s-price-warning-brings-the-commodity-crash-playbook-back-in-focus\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long BHP<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) BHP Billiton (BHP) Chairman Jacques Nasser raised eyebrows in a discussion with reporters on Wednesday, May 16th when he indicated that commodity prices are likely to keep falling for now: &#8220;The &#8230; <a title=\"BHP&#8217;s Price Warning Brings the Commodity Crash Playbook Back In Focus\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/05\/23\/bhp-warning-commodity-crash-portfolio-back-in-focus\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,199],"tags":[631,845,685,726,727],"class_list":["post-11674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china","category-commodities","tag-bhp","tag-bhp-billiton-ltd","tag-commodities-crash-playbook","tag-joy-global","tag-joyg"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>BHP&#039;s Price Warning Brings the Commodity Crash Playbook Back In Focus - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/05\/23\/bhp-warning-commodity-crash-portfolio-back-in-focus\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BHP&#039;s Price Warning Brings the Commodity Crash Playbook Back In Focus - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. 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