{"id":11501,"date":"2012-05-12T02:45:14","date_gmt":"2012-05-12T06:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=11501"},"modified":"2012-05-12T02:45:14","modified_gmt":"2012-05-12T06:45:14","slug":"arrows-south-priceline-post-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/05\/12\/arrows-south-priceline-post-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"Arrows Pointing South For priceline.com Post-Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 9, 2012 PRE-EARNINGS. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/572461-arrows-pointing-south-for-priceline-com-post-earnings\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip} In 2010, PCLN finally overtook Expedia (EXPE) in revenues. <\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Click image for a larger view&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11511\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11511\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_OWW_EXPE_PCLN_Revenue.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_OWW_EXPE_PCLN_Revenue-300x214.jpg\" alt=\"Annual Revenues for Orbitz, Expedia, and priceline.com\" title=\"Annual Revenues for Orbitz, Expedia, and priceline.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"214\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11511\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_OWW_EXPE_PCLN_Revenue-300x214.jpg 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_OWW_EXPE_PCLN_Revenue.jpg 819w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11511\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Annual Revenues for Orbitz, Expedia, and priceline.com<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/money.msn.com\" target=\"_blank\">MSN Money<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>With earnings coming up for PCLN, and given recent successes in analyzing post-earnings prospects for <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/344611-why-amazon-com-was-a-buy-at-the-open-after-reporting-earnings\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/456611-how-to-assess-best-buy-s-post-earnings-potential\" target=\"_blank\">Best Buy<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/535231-the-odds-deliver-as-post-earnings-apple-breaks-april-s-downtrend\" target=\"_blank\">Apple<\/a>, I decided finally to take a look at the post-earnings prospects for PCLN. In summary, it seems that given the recent divergence in price versus earnings and revenue growth (that is, a more expensive valuation), PCLN is &#8220;due&#8221; for a rare post-earnings sell-off. Moreover, the May earnings cycle is PCLN&#8217;s worst performing month for post-earnings price performance. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>First, the fundamentals for PCLN have remained strong over the past five years, even through the recession. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Click image for a larger view&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11502\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11502\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_EPSRevPrice.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_EPSRevPrice-300x212.jpg\" alt=\"Priceline.com (PCLN) Year-Over-Year Change In Fundamentals Vs. Stock Price\" title=\"Priceline.com (PCLN) Year-Over-Year Change In Fundamentals Vs. Stock Price\" width=\"300\" height=\"212\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11502\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_EPSRevPrice-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_EPSRevPrice.jpg 824w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11502\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Priceline.com (PCLN) Year-Over-Year Change In Fundamentals Vs. Stock Price<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/investing.money.msn.com\/investments\/financial-statements?symbol=pcln\" target=\"_blank\">EPS and Revenue data from MSN Money<\/a>, stock price data from Yahoo!Finance<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} This trading action all but confirms PCLN has made a top for now given the selling was so strong from the all-time highs in early April.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11504\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11504\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN.png\" alt=\"Priceline.com&#039;s stock prints a topping pattern that gets confirmed with a break of 50DMA support\" title=\"Priceline.com&#039;s stock prints a topping pattern that gets confirmed with a break of 50DMA support\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11504\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11504\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Priceline.com&#039;s stock prints a topping pattern that gets confirmed with a break of 50DMA support<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} None of this trading is strongly correlated to PCLN&#8217;s price performance the day after earnings are reported. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Click on image for a larger view&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11505\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11505\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnCorrelations.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnCorrelations-300x226.jpg\" alt=\"Correlation of Price Changes Pre-Earnings to the Price Change the Day After Earnings For Various Aggregations of Time\" title=\"Correlation of Price Changes Pre-Earnings to the Price Change the Day After Earnings For Various Aggregations of Time\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11505\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnCorrelations-300x226.jpg 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnCorrelations.jpg 918w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11505\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Correlation of Price Changes Pre-Earnings to the Price Change the Day After Earnings For Various Aggregations of Time<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} Since I am biased toward thinking PCLN will trade down following earnings, the above data provide a very weak expectation for a positive close for Wednesday&#8217;s trading ahead of earnings.<\/p>\n<p>Over these same 21 earnings cycles, PCLN has traded up the day following earnings an amazing 17 times, for an 81% post-earnings winning record. However, and this is a BIG &#8220;but&#8221;, three of those four post-earnings sell-offs occurred during the May earnings report. The May report is the only one of the four quarterly reports with a losing record.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11506\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11506\" style=\"width: 469px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnUpDown.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnUpDown.jpg\" alt=\"Number of Positive Versus Negative One-Day Reactions to Priceline&#039;s Earnings By Month of the Year (Since 2007)\" title=\"Number of Positive Versus Negative One-Day Reactions to Priceline&#039;s Earnings By Month of the Year (Since 2007)\" width=\"479\" height=\"408\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11506\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnUpDown.jpg 479w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnUpDown-300x255.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 479px) 100vw, 479px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11506\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Number of Positive Versus Negative One-Day Reactions to Priceline&#039;s Earnings By Month of the Year (Since 2007)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The range of post-earnings price performance has been quite remarkable. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11507\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11507\" style=\"width: 432px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnDistribution.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnDistribution.jpg\" alt=\"Distribution of One-Day Price Changes After Priceline.com Reports Earnings (Feb, 2007 to Feb, 2012)\" title=\"Distribution of One-Day Price Changes After Priceline.com Reports Earnings (Feb, 2007 to Feb, 2012)\" width=\"442\" height=\"384\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11507\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnDistribution.jpg 442w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/120508_PCLN_PostEarnDistribution-300x260.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 442px) 100vw, 442px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11507\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Distribution of One-Day Price Changes After Priceline.com Reports Earnings (Feb, 2007 to Feb, 2012)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Overall and all things considered, the arrows are pointing south for PCLN post-earnings, but making such a bet includes high risks. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>If PCLN manages to soar post-earnings yet again, history shows little potential for a fade. {snip} In other words, PCLN can be bought on post-earnings strength.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 9, 2012 PRE-EARNINGS. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/572461-arrows-pointing-south-for-priceline-com-post-earnings\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long calls and puts on AAPL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 9, 2012 PRE-EARNINGS. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} In 2010, PCLN finally overtook Expedia (EXPE) in revenues. Click image for a larger view&#8230; Source: MSN Money {snip} With earnings coming up for PCLN, and given recent successes &#8230; <a title=\"Arrows Pointing South For priceline.com Post-Earnings\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/05\/12\/arrows-south-priceline-post-earnings\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,62],"tags":[956,957,1597],"class_list":["post-11501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-technical-analysis","tag-pcln","tag-priceline-com","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arrows Pointing South For priceline.com Post-Earnings - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/05\/12\/arrows-south-priceline-post-earnings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arrows Pointing South For priceline.com Post-Earnings - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 9, 2012 PRE-EARNINGS. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} In 2010, PCLN finally overtook Expedia (EXPE) in revenues. Click image for a larger view&#8230; Source: MSN Money {snip} With earnings coming up for PCLN, and given recent successes ... 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