{"id":11261,"date":"2012-04-26T20:21:15","date_gmt":"2012-04-27T00:21:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=11261"},"modified":"2012-04-26T20:21:30","modified_gmt":"2012-04-27T00:21:30","slug":"t2108-update-120426","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/26\/t2108-update-120426\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – April 26, 2012 (Bullish Momentum Rebuilding)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 55%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 16.2%
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold with a bullish bias. (click here<\/a> for a trading summary posted on twitter)
\nReference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nMomentum seems to be rebuilding for the market. T2108 has soared over the last two days and now sits at 55%. I tweeted yesterday that the T1208 at 47% broke the April downtrend and confirmed the gaining momentum indicated by the S&P 500’s strong rally day that punched through the 50DMA. Now, the index is at 3-week highs. The chart below also shows the firm support the index has experienced at the last breakout line (which also coincides with last year’s highs).<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 is rebuilding momentum<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The volatility index is also dropping. It has confirmed resistance at 20 once again. Accordingly, VXX, the volatility ETN, has plunged and is right around the corner from fresh all-time lows.<\/p>\n

On the trading side, I find myself disappointed by a lack of VXX puts and SSO calls. I did not replenish my VXX puts after last week’s April expiration, and only have one May VXX put on hand. I bought tentatively into Monday’s big sell-off with May SSO calls first and then a fortuitous execution near the lows of the day on weekly SSO calls. I sold all of them into Tuesday’s lift, thinking the momentum looked poor. Unfortunately, I did not recognize that the odds had shifted toward a retest of the highs from the recent churn up and down and around the critical breakout support line. Moreover, T2108 was at relatively attractive levels in the 30s. Even a day’s worth of additional patience would have generated a large amount of additional profit. Another lesson learned!<\/p>\n

Going forward, I am anticipating T2108 to hit overbought conditions by sometime next week. This means my trading call shifts back to a bullish bias for now (note, I have not had a bearish bias since the major strategy change in early March). The stars seem well-aligned for May’s trading to start with T2108 overbought. Such an event will add one more reason for traders to sell in May. May will deliver a tumultuous mix of bearish technical signals from foreign exchange, macroeconomic weakness from Europe, and a T2108 history that suggests we should expect the rebuilding momentum to kick-off another sustained rally. I adjust my expectations, if needed, after I see how and where the S&P 500 trades once T2108 trips into overbought territory.<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS; long VXX put<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 55% VIX Status: 16.2% … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-11261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - April 26, 2012 (Bullish Momentum Rebuilding) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/26\/t2108-update-120426\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - April 26, 2012 (Bullish Momentum Rebuilding) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 55% VIX Status: 16.2% ... 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