{"id":11059,"date":"2012-04-17T23:47:57","date_gmt":"2012-04-18T03:47:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=11059"},"modified":"2012-04-17T23:47:57","modified_gmt":"2012-04-18T03:47:57","slug":"positioning-bearishly-vs-australian-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/17\/positioning-bearishly-vs-australian-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Positioning More Bearishly Versus the Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012&#8217;s Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 16, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/499071-positioning-more-bearishly-vs-the-australian-dollar-as-it-loses-2012s-gains\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I have been writing more and more bearishly on the Australian dollar this year (for example, see &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/474251-reserve-bank-of-australia-seems-biased-toward-more-monetary-easing\" target=\"_blank\">Reserve Bank Of Australia Seems Biased Toward More Monetary Easing<\/a>&#8220;). After <a href=\"http:\/\/au.news.yahoo.com\/a\/-\/latest\/13403436\/mine-closure-to-cost-queensland-millions\/\" target=\"_blank\">BHP Billiton (BHP) announced it would close a metallurgical coal mine in Queensland<\/a>, my alarm bells rang even louder. BHP was unable to resolve a severe labor dispute that Queensland Resources Council chief Michael Roche claims will eliminate about $1B AUD in export revenues. <\/p>\n<p>{snip} The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly noted that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2012\/mr-12-09.html\" target=\"_blank\">Australia&#8217;s terms of trade have peaked<\/a> and this mine closure likely further confirms that peak. Moreover, turbulence in Australia&#8217;s mining industry is unwelcome at a time when it is leading the way in an otherwise softening economic environment. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>As the RBA gets more dovish and economic conditions apparently begin to weaken a bit, the Australian dollar has notably faded against the U.S. dollar. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11061\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11061\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120415_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120415_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar struggles to hold onto support versus the U.S. dollar\" title=\"The Australian dollar struggles to hold onto support versus the U.S. dollar\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11061\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120415_AUDUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120415_AUDUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11061\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar struggles to hold onto support versus the U.S. dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center> <\/p>\n<p>As the Australian dollar struggles to hold on against the U.S. dollar, it has managed to stop the sharp under-performance versus the S&#038;P 500 (SPY). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11063\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11063\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120413_SP500vsFXA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120413_SP500vsFXA.png\" alt=\"Has the outperformance of the S&amp;P 500 ended just as the Australian dollar seems set to weaken further?\" title=\"Has the outperformance of the S&amp;P 500 ended just as the Australian dollar seems set to weaken further?\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11063\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120413_SP500vsFXA.png 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120413_SP500vsFXA-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11063\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Has the outperformance of the S&P 500 ended just as the Australian dollar seems set to weaken further?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=$SPX:FXA&#038;p=W&#038;yr=3&#038;mn=0&#038;dy=0&#038;id=p46683457320\" target=\"_blank\">Stockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11067\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11067\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120416_GBPAUD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120416_GBPAUD.png\" alt=\"GBP\/AUD looks set for a fresh surge higher\" title=\"GBP\/AUD looks set for a fresh surge higher\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11067\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120416_GBPAUD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120416_GBPAUD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11067\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GBP\/AUD looks set for a fresh surge higher<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"www.freestockcharts.com\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 16, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/499071-positioning-more-bearishly-vs-the-australian-dollar-as-it-loses-2012s-gains\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long AUD\/USD, AUD\/JPY, AUD\/CHF, GBP\/AUD, BHP, ANR, and CNX calls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have been writing more and more bearishly on the Australian dollar this year (for example, see &#8220;Reserve Bank Of Australia Seems Biased Toward More Monetary Easing&#8220;). After BHP Billiton (BHP) &#8230; <a title=\"Positioning More Bearishly Versus the Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012&#8217;s Gains\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/17\/positioning-bearishly-vs-australian-dollar\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,199,20],"tags":[310,631,845,632,686,309,688,306,203,448],"class_list":["post-11059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-commodities","category-forex","tag-australian-dollar","tag-bhp","tag-bhp-billiton-ltd","tag-btu","tag-coal","tag-fxa","tag-peabody-energy","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia","tag-rydex-currencyshares-australian-dollar-trust-etf"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Positioning More Bearishly Versus the Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012&#039;s Gains - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/17\/positioning-bearishly-vs-australian-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Positioning More Bearishly Versus the Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012&#039;s Gains - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 16, 2012. 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