{"id":11032,"date":"2012-04-11T02:19:09","date_gmt":"2012-04-11T06:19:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=11032"},"modified":"2012-04-11T02:20:51","modified_gmt":"2012-04-11T06:20:51","slug":"tbt-bottom-already-in-jeopardy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/11\/tbt-bottom-already-in-jeopardy\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Review: TBT&#8217;s Bottom Already In Jeopardy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Almost a month ago <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/435031-looking-like-a-bottom-for-tbt\" target=\"_blank\">I made another case for a bottom in TBT, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury<\/a>. The related breakout include some large, upward one-day moves. The churn included a convincingly successful retest of presumed support at the upper channel that formed the consolidation pattern for TBT&#8217;s bottom. Alas, that was not enough to prevent a large gap down on Monday and strong follow-through selling as weakness in the stock market has sent investors scurrying back for the &#8220;safety&#8221; and comfort of government bonds.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11033\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11033\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120410_TBT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120410_TBT.png\" alt=\"TBT breaks back down\" title=\"TBT breaks back down\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11033\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120410_TBT.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120410_TBT-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11033\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">TBT breaks back down<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The breakdown essentially converts the previous breakout into a potential false breakout. At the current pace, TBT will not even remain in the consolidation pattern for long.<\/p>\n<p>Adding to TBT&#8217;s jeopardy is that TLT, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund, has broken out from what previously appeared to be a topping pattern. Instead, TLT&#8217;s 200DMA generally held, and then TLT neatly gapped up above its 50DMA.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11034\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11034\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120410_TLT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120410_TLT.png\" alt=\"TLT breaks out\" title=\"TLT breaks out\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11034\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120410_TLT.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/120410_TLT-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11034\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">TLT breaks out<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Finally, a reader pointed me to a blog called <a href=\"http:\/\/charts.equityclock.com\/30-year-u-s-treasury-bonds-futures-us-seasonal-chart\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;Equity Clock&#8221; that published a seasonality chart for 30-year Treasury Bond Futures<\/a>. I was amazed to see how regularly the 30-year seems to gain in price from May until the end of the year. Perhaps it is somehow connected to the &#8220;sell in May&#8221; mantra.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless of the reason for TLT&#8217;s resurgence and TBT&#8217;s quivering, it is now time to think about what could happen if TBT craters to new lows. I am guessing that will only happen with some extremely dire catalyst in the market.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long TBT shares and calls and short puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Almost a month ago I made another case for a bottom in TBT, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury. The related breakout include some large, upward one-day moves. The churn included a convincingly successful retest of presumed support at the upper channel that formed the consolidation pattern for TBT&#8217;s bottom. Alas, that was not enough &#8230; <a title=\"Chart Review: TBT&#8217;s Bottom Already In Jeopardy\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/11\/tbt-bottom-already-in-jeopardy\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,483,482,266,62],"tags":[283,444,443,280],"class_list":["post-11032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-government","category-technical-analysis","tag-ishares-barclays-20-year-treasury-bond","tag-proshares-ultrashort-20-year-treasury","tag-tbt","tag-tlt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chart Review: TBT&#039;s Bottom Already In Jeopardy - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/11\/tbt-bottom-already-in-jeopardy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chart Review: TBT&#039;s Bottom Already In Jeopardy - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Almost a month ago I made another case for a bottom in TBT, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury. The related breakout include some large, upward one-day moves. The churn included a convincingly successful retest of presumed support at the upper channel that formed the consolidation pattern for TBT&#8217;s bottom. Alas, that was not enough ... 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