{"id":10976,"date":"2012-04-09T04:16:09","date_gmt":"2012-04-09T08:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=10976"},"modified":"2012-04-09T04:19:52","modified_gmt":"2012-04-09T08:19:52","slug":"t2108-update-120405","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/09\/t2108-update-120405\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – April 5, 2012 (The Bull Gets Even More Tentative)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 41%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 16.7%
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold. (click here<\/a> for a trading summary posted on twitter)
\nReference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThis update is late given the Friday trading holiday and global stock market weakness in the wake of disappointing U.S. unemployment numbers, so I will keep it short. <\/p>\n

T2108 marginally broke the uptrend in place since the August lows.<\/p>\n


\n
\"T2108<\/a>
T2108 breaks its recent uptrend<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This further weakens the case that T2108 will print overbought before it prints oversold. In fact, T2108 is now closer to oversold (20%) than to overbought (70%). Any trader wanting to use this information to short the market will be relieved to find that the S&P 500 remains just 1.5% off its recent multi-year highs – plenty of time and space for shorts. One could even argue that T2108 is creating a bearish divergence with the much slower S&P 500. HOWEVER, given the context of the last extended overbought period, I believe instead this divergence demonstrates the persistent strength in the index. I think it is entirely possible that an oversold T2108 may only drive the S&P 500 to a near reversal of March 13th’s big breakout move<\/a> and still preserve what is starting to look like a growing consolidation pattern<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Japanese yen is also starting to flag some bearish signals. I cover some esoteric aspects of this signal in “Bearish Implications Of A Rare Convergence Of Extremes In Yen Vs. S&P 500 Correlations<\/a>.” The yen’s weakness seems to be ending and with it looms the potential that the “risk on” bias of the stock market is fading. Finally, as I noted in an earlier post<\/a>, “sell in May” now looms over the horizon, especially for anyone anxious to preserve profits from the previous rally.<\/p>\n

In other words, the dominoes are starting to line up for the bears. Soon, it will be the turn of the bulls to prove their case. If this sets up a visit to oversold territory, I will consider myself lucky…I will have the strongest reason in a long time to increase bullish trading positions. In the meantime, I have switched the trading call back to a hold (assuming a bearish hedge is still in place) to reflect the end of aggressive buying of SSO calls on market dips until T2108 turns oversold and\/or the S&P 500 experiences a particularly sharp drop.<\/p>\n

CAT-watch: Still holding March’s lows.<\/p>\n


\nCharts below are the latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&P 500)<\/em>
\nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.
\n<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS; long SSO calls; long VXX calls and puts; long CAT shares and puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 41% VIX Status: 16.7% … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-10976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - April 5, 2012 (The Bull Gets Even More Tentative) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/09\/t2108-update-120405\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - April 5, 2012 (The Bull Gets Even More Tentative) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 41% VIX Status: 16.7% ... 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