{"id":10958,"date":"2012-04-12T20:13:54","date_gmt":"2012-04-13T00:13:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=10958"},"modified":"2012-07-09T00:44:42","modified_gmt":"2012-07-09T04:44:42","slug":"bearish-implications-convergence-yen-sp500-correlations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/12\/bearish-implications-convergence-yen-sp500-correlations\/","title":{"rendered":"Bearish Implications of A Rare Convergence of Extremes in Yen vs S&P 500 Correlations"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

In tweets and various posts, I have harped on the renewed strong relationship between yen strength and market weakness. In “Weakness in the Japanese Yen Is Over for Now, Part Two<\/a>“, I updated an overlay of the USD\/JPY, the U.S. dollar vs Japanese yen currency pair, and the performance of the S&P 500 (SPY) on key days of yen strength:<\/p>\n

Click image for a larger view.<\/strong><\/em>
\n


\n
\"USD\/JPY<\/a>
USD\/JPY finally cools off<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

After quantifying the specific correlations at work between USD\/JPY, the inverse of the Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese yen Trust (FXY), and the S&P 500 (SPY), I discovered a few surprises that I believe could imply sustained weakness in the stock market going forward.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Click image for a larger view.<\/strong><\/em>
\n


\n
\"Until<\/a>
Until very recently, the correlation between USD\/JPY and the S&P 500 was strengthening very sharply<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Several notable features of these relationships stand out to me:
\n{snip}<\/p>\n

Given the S&P 500 last peaked on May 1st of last year, it is very tempting to wonder whether the current ending of the high correlation is signaling another imminent top in the S&P 500. {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Click image for a larger view.<\/strong><\/em>
\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 has stalled as the rolling correlations have reached extremes together<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The current data suggest that any relationship between these correlations and the subsequent behavior of the S&P 500 represent sufficient conditions but not necessary ones. The question to ask is why would or how could such a high correlation be related with an imminent change in the prevailing trend in the S&P 500? I like to think of these dynamics as representing a reversion to some “norm.” {snip}<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long USD\/JPY, long SDS, long SSO calls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In tweets and various posts, I have harped on the renewed strong relationship between yen strength and market weakness. In “Weakness in the Japanese Yen Is Over for Now, Part Two“, … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,997,62,21],"tags":[968,138,65,1591,454],"class_list":["post-10958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-sp-500-analysis","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-correlation","tag-japanese-yen","tag-sp-500","tag-u-s-dollar","tag-usdjpy"],"yoast_head":"\nBearish Implications of A Rare Convergence of Extremes in Yen vs S&P 500 Correlations - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/04\/12\/bearish-implications-convergence-yen-sp500-correlations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bearish Implications of A Rare Convergence of Extremes in Yen vs S&P 500 Correlations - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2012. 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