{"id":10736,"date":"2012-03-27T02:41:44","date_gmt":"2012-03-27T06:41:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=10736"},"modified":"2012-03-27T02:41:44","modified_gmt":"2012-03-27T06:41:44","slug":"t2108-update-120326","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/03\/27\/t2108-update-120326\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – March 26, 2012 (All Systems Go On the Follow-Through)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 62%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 14.3%
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold with a bullish bias
\nReference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nSo much for wiping out the gains from the S&P 500’s big breakout on March 13th<\/a>. In my last update<\/a>, I gave the bearish case its due just for the sake of completeness. That case is now far in the rearview mirror for now. Today, the S&P 500 printed an important confirmation and follow-through to the current bullish trend. With T2108 still below overbought levels at 62%, the major index is still “all systems go.”<\/p>\n


\n
\"All<\/a>
All systems go for the S&P 500<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Incredibly, a LOT has happened in just two trading days. I will summarize the T2108-related action by describing the trades I made and their rationale and\/or context (you can follow the timeline with my #120trade hashtag in twitter<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Bought FXP (ProShares UltraShort FTSE\/Xinhua China 25 ETF) shares<\/strong>
\nIn the last T2108 update<\/a>, I put FXI, an ETF of 25 large cap Chinese stocks, on my bearish list given a new 2-month low. I bought FXP, the inverse of FXI. While this position naturally moved against me today, I realized that FXP is a great hedge given it seems China may likely produce the next source of market angst. If so, FXP should deliver some cushion against the blow. FXI remains below its 200DMA.<\/p>\n

Missed doubling down on more SSO weekly calls<\/strong>
\nOnce again, I failed to get aggressive enough…even as I believe I am shaking all lingering bearish doubts from my trading finger. I lowballed my offer despite the calls losing as much as 33% of their value at Friday’s lows. The chart below shows how little time I had to decide to accumulate. If I had managed to execute, those calls would have delivered about a 120% gain when I decided to sell my SSO calls into Monday’s open. Instead, I gathered a 58% gain on the first tranche of SSO calls. I did decide to hold onto my April SSO calls. As a reminder, my strong bullish bias has the short-term horizon of a swing trader (1 to 3 days), so weekly calls typically serve my purpose as a cheaper way to buy the dips. The longer-dated SSO calls are added firepower against the SDS hedge.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 makes a sharp turn after Thursday's dip at the open<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Closed out BBY “catch-up play”<\/strong>
\nFor more information on this trade and my analysis of the coming earnings play in BBY see “How To Assess Best Buy’s Post-Earnings Potential<\/a>.”<\/p>\n

Ended the torture of holding VXX shares<\/strong>
\nNothing has been more destructive to my performance than VXX shares. I finally gave myself MAJOR relief by unloading them on Friday. I simply could not trade VXX puts fast enough to keep up with VXX’s losses. I replaced the shares with April calls that I am holding as “just in case” we wake up one morning to something truly crazy. I suspect there are still way too many bears that are doubling and tripling down on VXX waiting for just that magical (Black swan) moment. I married the calls to even more puts, the better risk\/reward bet for now. Those puts soared in value at Monday’s open as VXX quickly fell another 6% to fresh all-time lows. I happily sold them. VXX ended the day down over 9%. This thing got so ugly, I decided near the close to apply some of my profits from the March weekly puts into buying out-of-the-money April puts. VXX’s chart exclaims 1000 words and death by 2000 cuts.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The VXX deathmarch<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Back into the euro-plays with Siemens (SI)<\/strong>
\nThe euro-plays get me the most excited right now. They are more in my contrarian comfort zone whereas the bullish plays on the S&P 500 are all about trend-following. With Europe rallying overnight, I checked in on Siemens (SI) to see how far it had popped. To my surprise, Siemens was flat. For comparison, EWG, the Germany ETF, closed the day up a cool 2.2%. SI is still directly below critical resistance so I am taking a larger risk than usual, but I feel it is worth the shot with EWG looking ready to launch to fresh 8-month highs. I consider Siemens a classic “catch-up” stock as it will be a natural play for anyone wanting to participate in a European recovery. I started with calls. If Siemens manages to drop below $90 or so, I will begin accumulating shares to hold for the longer haul.<\/p>\n

What now?<\/strong>
\nWith the S&P 500 at fresh multi-year highs, it seems crazy to maintain such a bullish bias, yet, the data told me to do it. While I suspect tomorrow’s open will make me wish I still had all my SSO calls and original collection of VXX puts, I will stay focused on the current strategy of buying whatever dips the market presents and then selling into the next rally. I continue to expect a lot of churn with a slight upward bias that produces numerous bullish trading opportunities, including shifts in and out of overbought territory. Last week’s dip was a PERFECT example of what I talked about earlier as part of my expectations: the continued frustration of bears as selling lacks the critical follow-through to break down the S&P 500. This week’s open printed an exclamation point as the S&P 500 recaptured ALL of last week’s losses in a flash. That impressive move occurred on decent (meaning average) trading volume. This follow-through and fresh breakout must thus be respected and given its due…<\/p>\n

When T2108 next hits overbought territory, I hope to re-examine the data supporting the bullish case. Until then, stay nimble and keep an open mind.<\/p>\n


\nCharts below are the latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&P 500)<\/em>
\nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.
\n<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS and FXP; long SSO and SI calls; long VXX calls and puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 62% VIX Status: 14.3% … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,4,794,387,43,135,62],"tags":[935,939,177,938,65,577,576,446,226,1597,178,120],"class_list":["post-10736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-china","category-europe","category-germany","category-industrial-sector","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-fxi","tag-fxp","tag-ipath-sp-500-vix-short-term-futures","tag-ishares-xinhua-25-index-fund-etf","tag-sp-500","tag-si","tag-siemens-aktien","tag-sso","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-volatility","tag-vxx"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - March 26, 2012 (All Systems Go On the Follow-Through) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/03\/27\/t2108-update-120326\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - March 26, 2012 (All Systems Go On the Follow-Through) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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