{"id":10531,"date":"2012-03-14T23:29:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-15T03:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=10531"},"modified":"2012-07-09T00:46:07","modified_gmt":"2012-07-09T04:46:07","slug":"australian-dollar-lose-race-against-sp500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/03\/14\/australian-dollar-lose-race-against-sp500\/","title":{"rendered":"The Australian Dollar Continues to Lose the Race Against the S&#038;P 500 in 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Someone forgot to tell the Australian dollar that financial markets are in &#8220;risk on&#8221; mode. While the Australian dollar is still up for the year against the U.S. dollar, it continues to lag the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) by a greater and greater distance. The Aussie is now up 2.6% versus the U.S. dollar whereas the S&#038;P 500 is up 10.9% year-to-date. When I wrote last week that &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/411151-my-love-affair-with-the-australian-dollar-has-officially-ended\" target=\"_blank\">My Love Affair with the Australian Dollar Has Finally Ended<\/a>,&#8221; I lamented that the specter of currency intervention added one too many risks to holding FXA, the Rydex CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust. The expanding under-performance pretty much seals the deal for me. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10535\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10535\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120314_SPYvsFXA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120314_SPYvsFXA.png\" alt=\"SPY is approaching new highs against FXA - not even the higher yield can close this gap\" title=\"SPY is approaching new highs against FXA - not even the higher yield can close this gap\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10535\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120314_SPYvsFXA.png 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120314_SPYvsFXA-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10535\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPY is approaching new highs against FXA - not even the higher yield can close this gap<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=SPY:FXA&#038;p=W&#038;yr=3&#038;mn=0&#038;dy=0&#038;id=p29491037408\" target=\"_blank\">Stockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The chart below suggests that the Australian dollar has topped out for a while. A month of churn in February has given way to a steady decline that now threatens January&#8217;s bullish breakout. The wedge (or triangle) I drew is a bit stylized, but it demonstrates clearly that the Aussie dollar is still clinging to a bullish mood. The next big test will come at the uptrend line which will happen to coincide roughly with 2010&#8217;s close.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10533\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10533\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120314_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120314_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar (the Aussie) is sagging\" title=\"The Australian dollar (the Aussie) is sagging\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120314_AUDUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120314_AUDUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10533\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar (the Aussie) is sagging<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I still find the Aussie very useful in short-term forex trades. I am slowly rebuilding positions against a basket of currencies in anticipation of some kind of bounce, perhaps to the 50-day moving average now hovering overhead.<\/p>\n<p>Stay tuned and be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long AUD\/USD, short GBP\/AUD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Someone forgot to tell the Australian dollar that financial markets are in &#8220;risk on&#8221; mode. While the Australian dollar is still up for the year against the U.S. dollar, it continues to lag the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) by a greater and greater distance. The Aussie is now up 2.6% versus the U.S. dollar whereas the &#8230; <a title=\"The Australian Dollar Continues to Lose the Race Against the S&#038;P 500 in 2012\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/03\/14\/australian-dollar-lose-race-against-sp500\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,20,997,62],"tags":[310,309,448,65,362,1597],"class_list":["post-10531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-forex","category-sp-500-analysis","category-technical-analysis","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-rydex-currencyshares-australian-dollar-trust-etf","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Australian Dollar Continues to Lose the Race Against the S&amp;P 500 in 2012 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/03\/14\/australian-dollar-lose-race-against-sp500\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Australian Dollar Continues to Lose the Race Against the S&amp;P 500 in 2012 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Someone forgot to tell the Australian dollar that financial markets are in &#8220;risk on&#8221; mode. While the Australian dollar is still up for the year against the U.S. dollar, it continues to lag the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) by a greater and greater distance. The Aussie is now up 2.6% versus the U.S. dollar whereas the ... 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