{"id":10274,"date":"2012-03-04T15:25:41","date_gmt":"2012-03-04T20:25:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=10274"},"modified":"2012-03-04T15:25:41","modified_gmt":"2012-03-04T20:25:41","slug":"gold-enthusiam-waning-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/03\/04\/gold-enthusiam-waning-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Enthusiam Is Waning Again Despite Surging Before Gold&#8217;s Recent Peak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 4, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/409201-gold-enthusiam-is-waning-again-despite-surging-before-gold-s-recent-peak\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Right after <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/281358-enthusiasm-for-gold-continues-to-wane\" target=\"_blank\">I last updated the gold enthusiasm index<\/a> last July, gold went near parabolic and peaked in about two months. In that post, I wrote that enthusiasm for gold continued to wane, implying from a contrarian view that gold was not caught in a bubble and certainly had not peaked. If I had updated the &#8220;gold enthusiasm index&#8221; during the run-up, I would have finally observed a sudden ignition of gold enthusiasm. That surge would have perhaps flagged a potential topping pattern (even if temporary given the strong longer-term fundamentals for gold). As it is, I am reporting many months after the fact.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10279\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10279\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_BuySellGold_GoogleTrends.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_BuySellGold_GoogleTrends.jpg\" alt=\"In August, search and news interest in &quot;buy gold&quot; surges to &quot;all-time&quot; highs\" title=\"In August, search and news interest in &quot;buy gold&quot; surges to &quot;all-time&quot; highs\" width=\"520\" height=\"328\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10279\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_BuySellGold_GoogleTrends.jpg 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_BuySellGold_GoogleTrends-300x189.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10279\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">In August, search and news interest in &quot;buy gold&quot; surges to &quot;all-time&quot; highs<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/trends\/?q=buy+gold,sell+gold&#038;ctab=0&#038;geo=all&#038;date=all&#038;sort=0\" target=\"_blank\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} <\/p>\n<p>Since the Chinese are large buyers of gold, I also looked at Google searches in Chinese. This is a poor proxy for Chinese interest given Google is not the primary search engine, but I have to use it for consistency with the rest of my metrics. I used Google translate to convert &#8220;buy gold&#8221; into \u4e70\u9ec4\u91d1 and &#8220;sell gold&#8221; into \u51fa\u552e\u9ec4\u91d1. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10283\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10283\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_BuySellGold_GoogleTrends_Chinese.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_BuySellGold_GoogleTrends_Chinese.jpg\" alt=\"&quot;Buy gold&quot; interest in Chinese was highest in late 2009\" title=\"&quot;Buy gold&quot; interest in Chinese was highest in late 2009\" width=\"520\" height=\"330\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10283\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_BuySellGold_GoogleTrends_Chinese.jpg 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_BuySellGold_GoogleTrends_Chinese-300x190.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10283\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">&quot;Buy gold&quot; interest in Chinese was highest in late 2009<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/trends\/?q=%E4%B9%B0%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91,%E5%87%BA%E5%94%AE%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91&#038;ctab=0&#038;geo=all&#038;date=all&#038;sort=0\" target=\"_blank\">Google trends<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>As a reminder, the gold enthusiasm index is a stylized metric that is simply the ratio of the relative Google search volume index for &#8220;buy gold&#8221; and the price of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10285\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10285\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_GoldEnthusiasmIndex.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_GoldEnthusiasmIndex.jpg\" alt=\"Gold enthusiasm surges ahead of September&#039;s peak in gold but is now back to the on-gong downward trend\" title=\"Gold enthusiasm surges ahead of September&#039;s peak in gold but is now back to the on-gong downward trend\" width=\"520\" height=\"378\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10285\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_GoldEnthusiasmIndex.jpg 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/120303_GoldEnthusiasmIndex-300x218.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10285\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Gold enthusiasm surges ahead of September&#039;s peak in gold but is now back to the on-gong downward trend<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Google trends and FreeStockCharts.com<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>I gathered two key lessons from this exercise: 1) Check the gold enthusiasm index more frequently, especially during dramatic price swings in gold, and 2) consider the full context surrounding changes in the index as relative changes seem to be much more important than absolute ones.<\/p>\n<p>It is entirely possible that the spike in &#8220;sell gold&#8221; was the more important signal. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>To be clear, I still believe the fundamentals for gold remain firmly in place. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 4, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/409201-gold-enthusiam-is-waning-again-despite-surging-before-gold-s-recent-peak\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long GLD, GG, GDX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 4, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Right after I last updated the gold enthusiasm index last July, gold went near parabolic and peaked in about two months. In that post, I wrote that enthusiasm for gold continued &#8230; <a title=\"Gold Enthusiam Is Waning Again Despite Surging Before Gold&#8217;s Recent Peak\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/03\/04\/gold-enthusiam-waning-again\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,62],"tags":[200,24,499,1597],"class_list":["post-10274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-technical-analysis","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-spdr-gold-trust","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold Enthusiam Is Waning Again Despite Surging Before Gold&#039;s Recent Peak - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/03\/04\/gold-enthusiam-waning-again\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold Enthusiam Is Waning Again Despite Surging Before Gold&#039;s Recent Peak - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 4, 2012. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Right after I last updated the gold enthusiasm index last July, gold went near parabolic and peaked in about two months. In that post, I wrote that enthusiasm for gold continued ... 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