{"id":10231,"date":"2012-02-29T23:16:48","date_gmt":"2012-03-01T04:16:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=10231"},"modified":"2012-02-29T23:16:48","modified_gmt":"2012-03-01T04:16:48","slug":"t2108-update-120229","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/02\/29\/t2108-update-120229\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – February 29, 2012 (Rare Follow-Through to Bearish Signals)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 75% (overbought day #40)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 18.4
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Close more bullish positions. Begin but do NOT expand an existing bearish position.<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nT2108 closed below 80% for the first time in 6 weeks. This decline is a major confirmation of the on-going, two week downtrend in T2108. This is also a very rare follow-through or confirmation of a major bearish signal for this 40-day old overbought period (now all alone at #7 in duration since 1986). This drop in T2108 follows a series of bearish signals I have pointed out over the past week:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Feb 22<\/a>: A drop in T2108 to 80% that retested a similar drop exactly one week earlier. (What is up with Wednesday’s?)<\/li>\n
  2. Feb 24<\/a>: I recommended that bears sharpen their pencils given a continuing drop in trading volume, a continued downtrend in T2108, and the S&P 500 fading from resistance at 52-week (and multi-year) highs. I recommended that anyone without a bearish position start one and any further gains for the S&P 500 would likely be a false breakout.<\/li>\n
  3. Feb 28<\/a>: T2108 finally showed some different behavior by dropping back to 80% even though the S&P 500 rallied to new 52-week and multi-year highs. The anemic trading volume underlined the bearish divergence.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Today, the S&P 500 rallied at the open only to fall back BELOW the previous day’s lows. And trading volume? Yep. It increased. Technicians will see a false breakout in this ominous move.<\/p>\n


    \n
    \"The<\/a>
    The S&P 500 fades from multi-year highs on heavy trading volume - an ominous follow-through to earlier bearish signals<\/figcaption><\/figure>
    \n<\/center><\/p>\n

    It seems to me the end of this overbought period is near. The biggest question now is whether the end will come with significant selling or a mild drift downward. My historical analysis on post-overbought trading<\/a> suggests that the S&P 500 will suffer a MAXIMUM loss of about 8% after this overbought period ends. It is also just as likely the S&P 500 will lose less than 1%. In other words, I must re-emphasize that if you want to establish a bearish position, NOW is the time to do it. Waiting until the end just exposes you to a higher risk of getting caught in a new surge higher in the S&P 500. Of course, if you prefer to stay bullish, you can lock in profits here (which you should have already done) and wait for a dip to buy again.<\/p>\n

    Finally, consider an interesting scenario. The overbought period may end with little fanfare before the S&P 500 turns upward again. This next overbought period only lasts a few days and exposes the market to a much larger potential sell-off (again, see the overbought analysis<\/a> for the range of possibilities).<\/p>\n

    Overall, we will need to maintain open minds, stay nimble, and expect to get mentally tested. This overbought period was a very rare event, so we have to be prepared. We must also avoid over-thinking the trading rules and recognize the limits of our knowledge when experiencing a long tail event.<\/p>\n


    \nCharts below are the latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&P 500)<\/em>
    \nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.
    \n<\/p>\n

    Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
    \n    \"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

    Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
    \n<\/center><\/p>\n


    \nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
    \n    \"Weekly
    \n*All charts created using     freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
    \n<\/center><\/p>\n

    Related links:<\/strong>
    \n    The T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
    \n    Expanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
    \n    Expanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

    Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

    Full disclosure: long SDS and VXX; long VXX puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    (T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 75% (overbought day #40) … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-10231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - February 29, 2012 (Rare Follow-Through to Bearish Signals) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/02\/29\/t2108-update-120229\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - February 29, 2012 (Rare Follow-Through to Bearish Signals) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 75% (overbought day #40) ... 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