{"id":10146,"date":"2012-02-25T20:28:41","date_gmt":"2012-02-26T01:28:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=10146"},"modified":"2012-02-25T20:31:55","modified_gmt":"2012-02-26T01:31:55","slug":"t2108-update-120224","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/02\/25\/t2108-update-120224\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – February 24, 2012 (bears, sharpen your pencils)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 82% (overbought day #37)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 17.3
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Close more bullish positions. Begin but do NOT expand an existing bearish position.<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nT2108 closed at 82% – the 37th overbought day in a row. T2108 is now ranked #8 in duration amongst all overbought periods since 1986, placing it in the 96th percentile. <\/p>\n

Despite these historic numbers, T2108 continued a slight downtrend that has subtly built up over the past two weeks. For example, on Wednesday, T2108 dropped to 80% for the second time in two weeks. This is notable given T2108 has stayed above 80% ever since mid-January. The S&P 500 is also demonstrating the slowing momentum. The daily chart below shows the S&P 500 pulling away from 52-week and multi-year highs for the second time in a week. Even more alarming is the continuing decline in volume. The blue line in the volume area is the 90-day moving average. It is hard to imagine the S&P 500 making a convincing breakout without buyers showing up in force.<\/p>\n


\n
\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500 fails twice to break 52-week highs as volume continues to sag<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I have pointed out the low trading volume in the past and that has not mattered to stock prices. The stock market has generally suffered low buying volumes for almost three years as investors continue to pull away from stocks. Volume is one of those things that only matters when it does…and what it does, the selling can get swift and furious given the lack of general support and interest in the overall market. In other words, sellers are easy to find and quick to pull the trigger when given a reason.<\/p>\n

In related news, the volatility index, the VIX, is trading near 7-month lows again. It bounced sharply on Friday from a 7-month closing low. This is a critical juncture where a further breakdown will take complacency to nosebleed levels (in my opinion).<\/p>\n

I have not commented on the trading strategy in quite some time because T2108 has showed so little change. However, NOW, I am highly recommending that if you do not yet have some kind of short position in place, that you get started. I am NOT advising putting on a full position because the historical record suggests that the S&P 500 may still have a few more percentage points of gains ahead before the overbought period finally ends. In case the declining volume does indicate the stock market’s fuel is running low, a bearish trader wants to make sure s\/he is ready for the high likelihood of a swift correction. If the few more percentage points arrive, I am forecasting this will mark a false breakout that should suck in the market’s last few reluctant buyers. No matter the size of your bearish position, you will want to fade that move rather aggressively. Stay tuned…!<\/p>\n


\nCharts below are the latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&P 500)<\/em>
\nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.
\n<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS and VXX; long VXX puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 82% (overbought day #37) … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-10146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - February 24, 2012 (bears, sharpen your pencils) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/02\/25\/t2108-update-120224\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - February 24, 2012 (bears, sharpen your pencils) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 82% (overbought day #37) ... 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